What risks could derail FLUT's Q1 2025 EPS forecast?

Flutter Entertainment PLC (FLUT) faces several risks that could derail its Q1 2025 EPS forecast:

1. Unfavorable Sports Results: The company's Q1 2025 EPS could be negatively impacted by unfavorable sports results, particularly in the NFL, as seen in the Q4 2024 trading update. Adverse outcomes can lead to a reduction in gross gaming revenue (GGR), revenue, and Adjusted EBITDA.
2. Increased State Gaming Taxes: A potential risk of increased state gaming taxes in the US could impact profitability, thereby affecting the EPS forecast.
3. Softness in Racing Market: The racing market in Australia showed softness, which led to an 8% decline in revenue. Although this might not directly impact Q1 2025, it could indicate broader market trends that might affect the quarter's performance.
4. Challenging Competitive Environment: In Brazil, up to 200 companies are applying for licenses, which could impact Flutter's market entry strategy and potentially affect its revenue and EPS.
5. Investment Losses in New States: There were investment losses in new states like Missouri and Alberta, which could impact the company's financials and EPS if not managed properly.

These risks, if materialize, could lead to a decline in FLUT's Q1 2025 EPS.