What risks could derail ABNB's EPS momentum in 2025?

Airbnb's (ABNB) EPS momentum in 2025 could be derailed by several risks, including:

1. **Travel Demand Softening**: A slowdown in discretionary spending, as indicated by Delta and American Airlines' revised forecasts, could lead to weaker travel demand. This would directly impact Airbnb's short-term rental business, potentially causing a decline in EPS.
2. **Currency Headwinds**: The company's reliance on international markets makes it vulnerable to forex headwinds, which could affect revenue growth and margin compression. For example, the extra day in 2024 and Easter timing may impact Q1 2025 revenue comparisons.
3. **Intense Competition**: Airbnb faces competition from established players like Expedia and Booking.com, as well as new entrants. Increased competition could lead to pricing pressures and market share losses, affecting profitability and EPS.
4. **Regulatory Challenges**: Airbnb operates in a heavily regulated environment, with ongoing concerns about host compliance and local market regulations. Changes in regulations or enforcement could increase costs and impact profitability.
5. **Economic Uncertainty**: Weaker consumer confidence in the face of economic uncertainty could lead to reduced travel spending, impacting Airbnb's bookings and revenue. This could be particularly challenging if interest rates remain high, affecting consumer discretionary spending.
6. **Market Saturation and Growth Limits**: As Airbnb matures, it may face challenges in sustaining high growth rates. Saturation in key markets could limit the company's ability to increase its customer base and expand revenue streams, potentially leading to a decline in EPS.

These risks could derail Airbnb's EPS momentum in 2025, and investors should monitor these factors closely.