How reliable are XOM's earnings forecasts?

Exxon Mobil's (XOM) earnings forecasts for the upcoming quarter are generally reliable, considering the following points:

1. Consensus Estimates: The consensus estimates for XOM's earnings per share (EPS) and revenue for the fiscal quarter ending March 31, 2025, are $1.72 EPS and $84.54 billion revenue. This indicates a year-over-year decline in EPS by 16.5% but a 3.24% increase in revenue.

2. Recent Performance: XOM has outpaced the Oils-Energy sector's gain over the past month, despite the S&P 500's loss. This suggests that XOM's performance is in line with its sector and market expectations.
3. Analyst Revisions: There have been recent revisions to analyst estimates, with the consensus EPS estimate moving 0.89% lower within the past month. This reflects the evolving nature of short-term business trends and analyst optimism regarding XOM's business and profitability.
4. Historical Performance: XOM has missed Wall Street's bottom-line estimates in three of the past four quarters but has surpassed expectations on other occasions. This track record suggests that while there is some uncertainty, XOM's earnings can be reliable within a range.
5. Strategic Position: XOM's strategic focus on maximizing production from high-yield oil projects and effective capital allocation supports its earnings potential. This resilience in the global energy market is a positive indicator for earnings forecasts.

In conclusion, while there are some uncertainties and XOM has not consistently met expectations, the current consensus estimates, recent analyst revisions, and the company's strategic position suggest that XOM's earnings forecasts for the upcoming quarter are relatively reliable. Investors should monitor the company's performance closely, especially considering the volatility in the energy market.