How reliable are UBER's EPS forecasts historically?

Uber Technologies (UBER) has shown volatile EPS forecasts historically, making them less reliable as a sole indicator for future performance predictions. Here's an analysis based on the latest data:

1. **Variability in Estimates**: The EPS estimates for Uber have shown significant variability. For instance, the estimate for the quarter ending March 2024, was $0.21 per share, representing a year-over-year change of +362.5%. In contrast, the estimate for the quarter ending December 2024, was $0.50 per share, representing a decline of -24.2% year-over-year. This variability underscores the challenges in predicting Uber's earnings accurately.

2. **Revisions Trends**: The trend of estimate revisions provides insights into the reliability of these forecasts. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter ending March 2024, has been revised 1.31% higher over the last 30 days. Conversely, for the quarter ending December 2024, the estimate has been revised 11.58% lower. These revisions reflect the evolving views of analysts, with some adjustments indicating a more optimistic outlook, while others suggest a more cautious stance.
3. **Earnings Whisper**: The Earnings Whisper for the upcoming quarter is $0.51 per share, marking a significant rise of 259.38% compared to the same quarter of the previous year. This suggests that some analysts are anticipating a strong performance, which could be influenced by factors such as market conditions, business strategies, and macroeconomic indicators.
4. **Geographic and Business Segment Insights**: Analysts have provided more nuanced forecasts by breaking down Uber's revenue by geographic segments and business areas. For example, 'Revenue- Mobility' is estimated at $6.80 billion, 'Revenue- Freight' at $1.31 billion, and 'Revenue- Delivery' at $3.64 billion. These more granular forecasts might offer a more comprehensive view of Uber's performance across different segments.

In conclusion, while Uber's EPS forecasts have shown volatility and variability, the recent trend of estimate revisions and the incorporation of more detailed geographic and business segment insights provide a more nuanced view of the company's potential performance. Investors should consider these factors along with broader market conditions and Uber's strategic initiatives when evaluating the reliability of these forecasts.