How reliable are TSM's earnings forecasts?

TSM's earnings forecasts for the upcoming quarter are highly reliable, as indicated by the consensus estimates and recent analyst revisions.

1. Consensus Estimates: The estimated EPS for TSMC in 2025Q1 is $2.02, representing a 46.38% increase year-over-year. The estimated revenue for the same quarter is $25.19 billion, reflecting a 33.55% escalation compared to the previous year's quarter. These figures are based on the latest available data and are widely accepted as a reliable representation of TSMC's expected performance.

2. Analyst Revisions: The Zacks Rank, which is based on estimate revisions, has been used to rate TSMC's stock as a #3 (Hold). This indicates that analysts have made positive revisions to their estimates, which is a good sign for the company's expected performance. The Zacks Rank has a proven track record of outperforming, with #1 ranked stocks delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988.
3. Recent Performance: TSMC's stock has experienced some fluctuations, with a drop of 14.62% in the past month. However, the upcoming earnings release is expected to be strong, with projected EPS and revenue that are significantly higher than the previous year's quarter. This suggests that analysts' forecasts are based on solid fundamentals and market conditions.
4. Market Conditions: The robust demand for AI and the expansion of TSMC's operations, including a $100 billion capital expenditure in the U.S., support the reliability of the earnings forecasts. These strategic moves are expected to drive growth and maintain or improve profit margins in the long term.

In conclusion, TSMC's earnings forecasts for the upcoming quarter are reliable, supported by consensus estimates, analyst revisions, and current market conditions. Investors can have confidence in the company's expected performance, which is reflected in the stock's rating and the company's strategic initiatives.