How reliable are PFE's earnings forecasts historically?

Pfizer's (PFE) earnings forecasts have shown a general decline over the past year, with a few fluctuations. Here's a detailed analysis:

1. **Recent Performance**: Pfizer's stock has experienced a mixed trend, with a recent trading session ending at $25.60, a decrease of 0.43% from the previous day. The stock has seen a 0.79% decrease in its last price to $25.01.

2. **Earnings Projection**:
- The estimated EPS for Pfizer is $0.46, which represents a significant year-over-year decline of 18.29%.
- The estimated revenue for the same period is $17.26 billion, indicating a decrease of 5.97% from the previous year.
3. **Historical Trends**: Pfizer's historical earnings forecasts have shown a general downward trend. The company's full-year 2024 revenue was $63.6 billion, an increase of 7% over 2023. However, operating revenue growth for non-COVID products was at 12%, which was above expectations.
4. **Analyst Sentiments**: Analysts have revised their earnings estimates for Pfizer, with the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate moving 0.51% higher over the past month. This suggests a slight improvement in forecast reliability, but it is important to note that the overall trend remains negative.
5. **Market Valuation**: Pfizer's stock is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 8.87, which indicates that the market may be underpricing the company's earnings stability and future catalysts. This could imply that the market is not fully confident in the company's earnings projections.
6. **Pipeline and Strategic Moves**: Despite the challenges, Pfizer's expanding pipeline in oncology, obesity treatments, and vaccines positions the company for long-term upside. The company's cost optimizations and transition away from pandemic-driven dependency in revenue are positive signs.

In conclusion, while there are some positive indicators, such as the revision in earnings estimates and the company's strategic moves, the overall trend of declining earnings projections suggests that Pfizer's earnings forecasts may not be as reliable as they once were. The market's cautious stance, reflected in the stock's performance and valuation, reflects this uncertainty. Investors should closely monitor the company's performance and any updates on its pipeline and strategic initiatives.