How reliable are MAR's earnings forecasts historically?

Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) has demonstrated a generally reliable earnings forecast historically, with several key points indicating its strong financial outlook:

1. **Consistent Performance**: Marriott's earnings have topped the consensus mark in three of the trailing four quarters, missing only on one occasion. The average surprise has been approximately 17.6%, which suggests that the company's actual performance tends to exceed expectations.
2. **Stable Estimate Revisions**: The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share (EPS) has remained stable or adjusted slightly in the recent period, indicating a predictable trend in earnings expectations. For instance, the estimate for the third quarter has remained at $2.31 over the past 60 days.
3. **Growth Drivers**: Marriott's earnings are supported by robust global leisure and business travel demand, which has led to increases in revenue per available room (RevPAR) and average daily rates. The company's strategic initiatives, such as unit expansion and higher co-branded credit card fees, have also contributed to its financial growth.
4. **Regional Variations**: While there are regional variations in demand, such as softness in China, the overall trend across major international markets, including Asia Pacific, the United States, and Canada, has been positive. This broad geographic strength supports the reliability of Marriott's earnings forecast.
5. **Historical Revenue Growth**: Marriott's revenue growth has been steady, with expectations of growth in the third quarter of 2024, driven by RevPAR and unit growth. The company's gross fee revenues are anticipated to increase year-over-year, reflecting its reliable revenue stream.

In conclusion, Marriott's historical earnings forecasts demonstrate a strong and reliable trend, supported by global demand, strategic initiatives, and consistent performance across various regions. This makes Marriott's earnings forecast a valuable indicator for investors.