How reliable are LMT's earnings forecasts?

Lockheed Martin's (LMT) earnings forecasts are generally reliable, as evidenced by the following points:

1. Consensus Estimates: The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LMT's upcoming earnings report is anticipating revenue of $17.74 billion, indicating a 3.19% upward movement from the same quarter last year. This suggests that analysts are expecting growth in the revenue stream.
2. Analyst Revisions Trend: There has been a slight revision in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter, which has been revised 0.51% lower over the last 30 days. This reflects the collective reassessment of analysts' initial estimates, which can be a sign of optimism about the company's business outlook.
3. Earnings Whisper Estimate: The Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate. This model has been proven to provide insights into the likelihood of a positive EPS surprise, which is crucial for understanding the potential upside or downside from the earnings report.
4. Historical Performance: Lockheed Martin has demonstrated robust financial performance, with its third quarter 2024 results exceeding expectations. This track record of exceeding expectations lends credibility to the company's earnings forecasts.
5. Market Performance: Despite a slight miss in total revenue in the past, the company's stock has seen a decrease of 1.2% over the last month. This suggests that the market may be anticipating the potential for growth in the upcoming earnings report to be a catalyst for stock price movement.

In conclusion, while there are some minor revisions in estimates, the overall trend and the company's historical performance indicate that LMT's earnings forecasts are reliable. Investors should monitor the upcoming earnings report and the company's discussion of business conditions, as this will likely influence the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations.