How reliable are IP's earnings forecasts?

International Paper's (IP) earnings forecasts for 2025 are generally reliable, supported by several key factors:

1. **Strong Revenue Forecast**: IP has forecasted $27 billion in revenue for 2025, which exceeds market expectations. This indicates a strong revenue outlook, underpinning the reliability of their earnings forecast.
2. **EBITDA Guidance**: The company has projected an adjusted EBITDA between $3.5 billion and $4 billion for 2025. This guidance is in line with analysts' expectations and reflects a clear understanding of its financial performance.
3. **Strategic Focus**: IP's new CEO, Andrew Silvernail, is focusing on profitability improvements and the integration of recent acquisitions. These strategies are likely to positively impact earnings as the company executes on its plans.
4. **Analyst Support**: Both Citi and BofA Securities have reiterated their Buy ratings on IP, with Citi setting a $60 target and BofA maintaining a $61 target. This analyst support reflects confidence in IP's earnings outlook.
5. **Long-term Forecast**: IP has provided a transparent long-term financial outlook, projecting free cash flow between $2 billion and $2.5 billion and net sales between $26 billion and $28 billion by 2027. This consistency in forecasting enhances the reliability of their earnings projections.

In conclusion, IP's earnings forecasts for 2025 are reliable, considering the company's strong revenue forecast, EBITDA guidance, strategic focus, analyst support, and transparent long-term outlook.