How reliable are IDXX's earnings forecasts historically?

IDXX's earnings forecasts have shown a generally reliable trend, with the company consistently meeting or exceeding market expectations. Here's a detailed analysis:

1. **Consistent Performance**: IDEXX has a track record of meeting earnings per share (EPS) estimates 100% of the time over the last two years, according to Seeking Alpha. This indicates a strong likelihood of accuracy in their forecasted earnings.

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Total Revenue|Net Income|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|IDXX|IDXX.O|IDEXX Laboratories|2024 Q1|9.64095E8|2.35579E8|185|
|IDXX|IDXX.O|IDEXX Laboratories|2024 Q2|1.003578E9|2.03298E8|185|
|IDXX|IDXX.O|IDEXX Laboratories|2024 Q3|9.75543E8|2.32841E8|185|
|IDXX|IDXX.O|IDEXX Laboratories|2024 Q4|9.54288E8|2.16149E8|185|

2. **Revenue Accuracy**: The company has also beaten revenue estimates 63% of the time over the same period. While this isn't a perfect track record, it suggests that IDEXX's revenue forecasts are often reliable.
3. **Recent Performance**: In the most recent quarter (2024Q4), IDEXX's net income was $216.15 million, with a year-over-year growth rate of 11.12%. The total revenue was $954.29 million, reflecting a 5.84% increase year-over-year. The company's revenue exceeded street estimates by 1.9%, indicating a positive surprise and suggesting that their forecasts may be conservative.

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Net Income YoY|Total Revenue YoY|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|IDXX|IDXX.O|IDEXX Laboratories|2024 Q1|10.05587375148327|7.098461999900022|185|
|IDXX|IDXX.O|IDEXX Laboratories|2024 Q2|-9.337483722506645|6.352913747973251|185|
|IDXX|IDXX.O|IDEXX Laboratories|2024 Q3|9.711116660619796|6.555350087982113|185|
|IDXX|IDXX.O|IDEXX Laboratories|2024 Q4|11.118593879324083|5.843715790022416|185|

4. **Analyst Confidence**: Analysts have a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" for IDEXX stock, with a price target of $450. This suggests that analysts are generally optimistic about the company's future performance, which can be a positive indicator for earnings forecasts.
5. **Growth Prospects**: IDEXX's business model is based on a diversified range of products and services, with a strong focus on veterinary diagnostics. The company's strategy of creating an integrated ecosystem and generating recurring revenues from consumables has proven successful. Additionally, the expected growth drivers, such as the Cancer Diagnostics and the inVue product, indicate a positive outlook for future earnings.

In conclusion, while there is no guarantee that future earnings will match historical performance, IDEXX's consistent track record, recent positive financial results, and analyst confidence suggest that their earnings forecasts are likely to be reliable.