How reliable are GM's earnings forecasts?

General Motors' (GM) earnings forecasts have shown a generally reliable track record, with several factors indicating the company's potential to consistently beat expectations:

1. **Consistent Performance**: GM has demonstrated a strong history of beating earnings estimates, especially when considering the past two quarters. The company has an average surprise of 16.74% over the last two quarters.
2. **Recent Surprise**: In the most recent quarter, GM exceeded expectations with an EPS of $2.96 per share, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.49 per share, resulting in a significant surprise of 18.88%.
3. **Earnings Guidance**: GM's earnings guidance has been exceeding Wall Street projections, with the company recently raising its full-year EPS guidance, further suggesting confidence in its financial performance.
4. **Analyst Optimism**: Analysts have been increasing their earnings estimates for GM, reflecting growing optimism about the company's future performance.
5. **Market Sentiment**: Despite some market volatility and regulatory concerns, GM's stock has shown resilience, with insider buying activity indicating confidence in the company's future prospects.

However, it's important to note that while GM's earnings forecasts have been reliable in the past, they are not without risks. Tariff uncertainties and potential regulatory changes could impact the company's future performance, as seen in the recent decline in stock price due to these factors. Additionally, the company's Altman Z-Score indicates a potential risk of bankruptcy within the next two years if no mitigating actions are taken, which could affect its earnings trajectory.