How reliable are AXP's earnings forecasts for long-term investors?

**American Express' (AXP) earnings forecasts appear generally reliable for long-term investors**, considering the following points:

1. **Consistent Growth Trajectory**: AXP has demonstrated a consistent growth trajectory in earnings and revenues over the years. The company's earnings are expected to grow by 8% to 10% in 2025, with projected EPS between $15 and $15.50, up from $13.35 in 2024 and $11.21 in 2023. This indicates a strong financial performance and suggests that the company's earnings forecasts are based on solid business fundamentals.
2. **Positive Analyst Ratings and Revisions**: Analysts have given AXP a Moderate Buy consensus rating, indicating a cautiously optimistic outlook. Additionally, recent estimate revisions have been mostly positive, with a 2.79% higher consensus EPS estimate over the last 30 days. This reflects analyst optimism about the company's business and profitability, which is a good indicator of the reliability of earnings forecasts.
3. **Dividend Growth and Financial Resilience**: AXP has consistently increased its dividends, reflecting its financial strength and confidence in its long-term earnings prospects. The company's dividend yield is attractive, and the consistent pattern of dividend growth is a positive signal for investors looking for stable earnings forecasts.
4. **Resilience Amid Economic Uncertainty**: Despite economic uncertainty, AXP has not shown significant impact on its earnings and revenue growth. The company reported record revenue of $65.9 billion in 2024, up 9% year-over-year, which suggests that its earnings forecasts are robust even in challenging economic conditions.
5. **Strong Business Performance**: AXP's key performance indicators, such as card member spending data, show strong growth in certain segments, like airline and premium airline cabin seating, which contributes to the company's earnings growth. This strong business performance supports the reliability of its earnings forecasts.

In conclusion, while no forecast is completely immune to unexpected events, the combination of AXP's consistent growth, positive analyst ratings, dividend growth, resilience amid economic uncertainty, and strong business performance make its earnings forecasts reliable for long-term investors.