How reliable are AOS's earnings forecasts?

**A. O. Smith's (AOS) earnings forecasts are generally reliable with some considerations.** Here's an analysis to support this view:

1. **Consensus Ratings and Analyst Interest**: AOS has received a consensus rating of "Hold" from analysts, indicating a generally positive outlook. The company has been the subject of five research reports in the past 90 days, demonstrating strong analyst interest.
2. **Earnings Growth Expectations**: Analysts expect AOS's earnings to grow by 11.70% in the coming year, from $3.76 to $4.20 per share. This suggests a positive outlook on the company's future performance.
3. **Historical Performance vs. Expectations**:
- AOS has surpassed consensus EPS estimates just once over the last four quarters, missing the mark by -4.49% in the latest report period.
- The company has missed revenue estimates by 4.17% in the latest quarter, showing a trend of slightly underperforming expectations.
4. **Recent Trends and Variations**:
- AOS's stock price has experienced a decrease of 1.67%, which may reflect market concerns or adjustments in growth expectations.
- The company's net income and revenue have shown declines of -20.1% and -7.66%, respectively, compared to the same period last year, which could influence future earnings projections.

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Net Income YoY|Net Income|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|AOS|AOS.N|A. O. Smith|2024 Q1|16.312056737588655|1.476E8|169|
|AOS|AOS.N|A. O. Smith|2024 Q2|-0.5095541401273885|1.562E8|169|
|AOS|AOS.N|A. O. Smith|2024 Q3|-11.299852289512554|1.201E8|169|
|AOS|AOS.N|A. O. Smith|2024 Q4|-20.101966496722508|1.097E8|169|

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Total Revenue YoY|Total Revenue|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|AOS|AOS.N|A. O. Smith|2024 Q1|1.283112582781457|9.788E8|169|
|AOS|AOS.N|A. O. Smith|2024 Q2|6.609075770191507|1.0243E9|169|
|AOS|AOS.N|A. O. Smith|2024 Q3|-3.7226666666666666|9.026E8|169|
|AOS|AOS.N|A. O. Smith|2024 Q4|-7.661167897986034|9.124E8|169|

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Diluted EPS YoY|Diluted EPS|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|AOS|AOS.N|A. O. Smith|2024 Q1|19.04761904761905|1|169|
|AOS|AOS.N|A. O. Smith|2024 Q2|1.9230769230769247|1.06|169|
|AOS|AOS.N|A. O. Smith|2024 Q3|-8.888888888888896|0.82|169|
|AOS|AOS.N|A. O. Smith|2024 Q4|-18.478260869565222|0.75|169|

5. **Market Expectations and Potential Surprises**:
- Wall Street expects AOS to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings and revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended March 2024.
- The expected EPS and revenue for the upcoming quarter are $0.99 per share and $999.07 million, respectively, which are closely aligned with the analyst estimates.
6. **Valuation Metrics**: AOS's P/E ratio is 16.73, trading at a less expensive ratio than the market average and the Industrials sector average. This suggests that the company may be undervalued, which could positively influence earnings expectations.
7. **Dividend Strength**: AOS has a strong dividend yield, which is a positive indicator for income-focused investors.

In conclusion, while AOS has not consistently exceeded earnings expectations, the company's positive growth outlook, strong analyst interest, and recent revenue trends suggest that its earnings forecasts are generally reliable. Investors should monitor the company's performance closely, especially in light of any changes in market conditions or company-specific factors that could impact future earnings.