How did REFI's Q1 2025 EPS forecast compare to past trends?

**Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (REFI) is poised to maintain its dividend payout ratio of 90% to 100% based on distributable earnings, emphasizing its commitment to supporting leading operators in the cannabis sector.** This strategic focus aligns with the rapidly expanding cannabis industry, indicating strong market positioning and growth potential for REFI.

1. **Consistent Dividend Strategy**: REFI has demonstrated a commitment to returning value to shareholders, as evidenced by the regular quarterly dividend of $0.47 per share for Q1 2025, with a special dividend of $0.18 per share for the fiscal year, contributing to a total of $2.06 in dividends per share for 2024.
2. **Financial Performance**: Despite a slight decline in net income to $7.9 million for the fourth quarter of 2024, the company reported net income of approximately $37 million for the year, indicative of solid financial performance. This performance is a testament to REFI's strong portfolio and its ability to navigate external economic factors that affected interest income.
3. **Market Positioning**: As the largest platform focused on cannabis financing, REFI is well-positioned to capitalize on the growth of the cannabis industry. The company's loan portfolio stood at approximately $410.2 million, with a weighted average yield to maturity of 17.2%. This robust portfolio and strong liquidity, with nearly $500 million in pipeline investments, could enhance future revenue streams.
4. **Analyst Expectations**: The consensus EPS* forecast for the fiscal quarter ending March 2025 has remained consistent at $0.28 over the past month, suggesting stability in earnings expectations. While this does not provide a direct comparison to past trends, it does indicate a reasonable and achievable target for REFI's earnings.
5. **Potential Challenges**: It is important to note potential risks in the loan portfolio, as indicated by the reserve for current expected credit losses. Additionally, the company's financial performance may be influenced by external economic factors, such as the decrease in interest income due to the prime rate decrease.

In conclusion, REFI's Q1 2025 EPS forecast is underpinned by the company's strong dividend strategy, solid financial performance, and strategic market positioning in the cannabis-focused lending operations. While there are potential challenges, such as external economic factors and risks in the loan portfolio, the company's overall outlook remains positive, supported by its commitment to shareholder value and its role as a leading platform in the cannabis financing sector.