Can FOUR rebound from its Q3 earnings miss?
4/8/2025 02:10pm
**Shift4 Payments (FOUR) has a promising chance of rebounding from its Q3 earnings miss**, considering the following points:
1. **Resilience of the Stock**: Despite the earnings miss, FOUR's stock remained resilient, gaining 8.3% over the past month. This indicates a strong investor confidence or a bullish sentiment that could pave the way for a rebound.
2. **Strong Growth Metrics**: FOUR has shown significant growth in gross revenue and gross profit. The company's gross revenue increased by 29% year-over-year to $707.40 million, and its gross profit grew by 27.3% to $175.90 million. This robust growth trajectory suggests that FOUR has the potential to bounce back from a temporary earnings setback.
3. **Upcoming Events and Guidance**: FOUR has provided steady full-year financial guidance, which could reassure investors and support a rebound. Additionally, the company has raised its 2024 guidance for adjusted EBITDA, indicating a positive outlook.
4. **Industry Favorability**: The fintech sector is expected to benefit from economic growth and increased market liquidity, which are favorable for companies like FOUR. As interest rates are anticipated to fall, it creates a more conducive environment for fintech stocks to perform well.
5. **Analyst Optimism**: Despite the Q3 miss, analysts have maintained a positive outlook on FOUR. For instance, William Blair has an "Outperform" rating, and other analysts have adjusted price targets or reaffirmed buy ratings. This sentiment could translate into increased investor confidence and a rebound in the stock price.
6. **Innovation and Market Position**: FOUR's focus on innovative solutions and its strong market position in the hospitality and e-commerce sectors could be catalysts for a rebound. The company's consistent profitability and expected nearly 30% earnings growth over the next year support this notion.
In conclusion, while FOUR faced a Q3 earnings miss, various factors such as stock resilience, strong growth metrics, positive guidance, industry favorability, analyst optimism, and innovation in its market position suggest that the company has a strong potential for a rebound in its stock price.