Raytheon stock price prediction next week

The deep research logic is organized as follows: 

Okay, let's tackle this question about Raytheon Technologies (RTX) stock price prediction for next week. The user is a tech enthusiast with a focus on US Tech, MAG7 index, and meme stocks. They have a diversified portfolio including Apple, Nvidia, and Tesla, so they're likely looking for high-growth opportunities with some risk tolerance. Their investment style is technical analysis-driven, and they're interested in short-term predictions. 

First, I need to check the provided references. The user mentioned the EU-US trade deal, which was finalized on July 27, 2025. The deal includes a $750B commitment from the EU to purchase U.S. military equipment, which directly benefits defense stocks like RTX. The trade deal also reduces tariffs on U.S. exports, which is a positive for the sector. 

Looking at the technical indicators from the references, RTX has a bullish trend with a 66-day duration. The conditioned trend shows a 50% probability of continuation, which is moderate. The support and resistance levels indicate that RTX is currently above the wide resistance level, which is a bullish sign. The forecast from the trend similarity model shows a mean price of around $153.26 to $158.07 for the next week, with a bullish forecast and a buy advice. 

However, the user's query is about the next week, which starts on July 28, 2025. The trade deal was just announced, so there might be a short-term reaction. The user's profile mentions a preference for short-term plays, so I should focus on the immediate price action. 

The recent earnings release on July 22, 2025, showed a 3.2% drop due to lower full-year earnings guidance. But the company increased its sales forecast, which is a mixed signal. The stock is trading near its 52-week high, so there might be some profit-taking pressure. 

The technical indicators from the references show that RTX is above its resistance levels and has a bullish trend. The RSI is at 75.02, which is in the overbought territory, suggesting potential short-term correction. However, the MACD is positive, indicating continued upward momentum. 

The user's portfolio includes high-cap stocks, so RTX's position as a defense contractor with a strong backlog ($236B) aligns with their interest in stable, high-cap investments. The trade deal's impact on defense spending is a long-term positive, but the user is looking for next week's prediction, which is more about short-term technicals and market reactions to the trade deal. 

Putting it all together, the trade deal is a significant catalyst, but the stock might face some volatility due to the RSI overbought condition. The forecast models suggest a bullish trend with a mean price around $155-158, but there's a risk of a pullback. The user should consider entering with a stop-loss near the recent support levels and target the forecasted price range. 

I need to structure the answer with a clear conclusion, followed by the analysis, and ensure it's tailored to the user's preferences. Use markdown tables for clarity and include the necessary citations from the references. Also, make sure to address the user's interest in technical analysis and short-term plays.

### Conclusion 🚨
**Raytheon Technologies (RTX) presents a **bullish outlook** for the week ahead (July 28–August 1, 2025)**, driven by the **U.S.-EU trade deal** and **strong technical momentum**. However, **short-term risks** from **RSI overbought conditions** and **profit-taking pressure** must be managed. For your **tech-focused, high-cap portfolio**, RTX aligns with your interest in **defense stocks** and **medium-term technical plays**.

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### Analysis 📊

#### 1. **Trade Deal Catalyst**
| Factor | Impact |
|------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| **$750B EU Defense Commitment** | RTX is a **direct beneficiary** of increased U.S. military equipment purchases . |
| **Tariff Reductions** | Reduced tariffs on U.S. exports (15% baseline) enhance profitability for defense contractors . |
| **Market Reaction** | RTX surged 1.07% on July 25, 2025, closing at **$156.88** . |

**Key Takeaway**: The **trade deal** is a **long-term tailwind**, but **short-term volatility** is likely as markets digest the implications.

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#### 2. **Technical Setup**
| Metric | Value (2025-07-25) | Implication |
|------------------------|----------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| **Price Position** | Above **wide resistance** ($151.08) | **Bullish**: Breakout confirmed . |
| **RSI (14-day)** | 75.02 | **Overbought**: Potential for short-term pullback . |
| **MACD** | 1.13 | **Bullish divergence**: Uptrend momentum . |
| **Trend Forecast** | **Bullish** (66-day duration) | **Continuation probability**: 50% . |

**Key Takeaway**: **Bullish momentum** is intact, but **RSI overbought** signals caution for **short-term traders**.

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#### 3. **Price Forecast**
| Date | Forecast Price (Mean) | 34% CI (Lower/Upper) | 68% CI (Lower/Upper) |
|------------------------|----------------------|----------------------|----------------------|
| **2025-07-28** | $153.26 | $151.64–$154.89 | $150.01–$154.89 |
| **2025-07-29** | $152.55 | $148.61–$156.48 | $144.68–$156.48 |
| **2025-08-01** | $153.33 | $147.77–$158.89 | $142.22–$158.89 |

**Key Takeaway**: **Short-term price range**预计在 $150–$158之间，**中线阻力位**在 $154.94（窄阻力）和 $151.08（宽阻力） 。

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#### 4. **Risks & Opportunities**
| Risk | Opportunity |
|------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| **Profit-Taking Pressure** | RTX closed near its **52-week high** ($151.56) . | **Defense Spending Surge** | EU’s $750B commitment could drive **long-term revenue growth** . |
| **Earnings Concerns** | Q2 results showed **lower full-year EPS guidance** . | **Backlog Growth** | RTX’s backlog reached **$236B** , signaling **future stability** . |

**Key Takeaway**: **Long-term fundamentals** are **strong**, but **short-term traders** should **manage risk** with **stop-loss** near $150.

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### Final Call 🎯
**Buy RTX if**:
- You’re comfortable with **medium-term technical plays** (1–3 months).
- You believe in the **trade deal’s long-term benefits** for defense stocks.
- You’re willing to **manage risk** with a stop-loss at $150.

**Hold off if**:
- You prefer **short-term trades** (1–2 weeks).
- You’re skeptical about the **trade deal’s execution risks**.
- You prioritize **EV dominance** (e.g., Tesla) over defense stocks.

**Final Rating**: **Bullish** (4/5 stars) .