How did PTLO's Q1 2025 EPS forecast compare to past trends?

Portillo's Q1 2025 EPS forecast of $0.04 reflects a significant decline from the company's historical performance and market expectations.

1. **Comparison to Historical Performance**:
- Portillo's Q1 2024 EPS was $0.17, which significantly exceeded the forecast of $0.02. This indicates a strong earnings performance in the recent past.
- In Q1 2023, Portillo's EPS was $0.12, which was slightly below the consensus estimate of $0.14. Despite this, it shows a robust earnings generation compared to the forecast.
2. **Comparison to Market Expectations**:
- The consensus estimate for Q1 2025 EPS was $0.05, and this was revised downward to $0.04 by William Blair. This downward revision suggests a pessimistic view of Portillo's short-term performance.
- Analysts have set the full-year FY2025 EPS at $0.37, which implies a belief in a recovery or stabilization of earnings after the anticipated weak Q1.
3. **Trends and Challenges**:
- Portillo's has demonstrated resilience with same-restaurant sales growing by 0.4% in Q4 2024. This suggests a positive trend that contradicts the negative forecast for Q1 2025.
- The company's revenue decline of 1.7% year-over-year in Q4 2024 may indicate broader industry challenges that could impact Q1 2025 results.
4. **Future Outlook**:
- Despite the current pessimism, analysts have set a higher EPS target of $0.37 for FY2025 compared to the Q1 2025 forecast of $0.04. This suggests a potential for earnings recovery as we progress through the year.
- The stock's performance and analyst ratings, including upgrades and price target increases, reflect a cautiously optimistic view of Portillo's long-term prospects.

In conclusion, while the Q1 2025 EPS forecast indicates a challenging period for Portillo's, the company's historical performance, recent trends, and analyst opinions suggest that this may be a temporary setback rather than a permanent downturn.