Prepare me for the upcoming week of trading

🚀 Quick Take
The risk/reward set-up for the week of 18 – 22 Aug 2025 looks neutral-to-constructive: U.S. equity indices are holding above their rising 20- and 50-day moving averages, volatility is subdued, and the macro calendar is light until Thursday. The main catalysts will be Walmart’s earnings (Thu) and the Flash-PMIs + jobless-claims combo (Thu/Fri). Stay nimble, keep stops tight, and expect liquidity to thin out ahead of next week’s Nvidia blockbuster results.

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## 1. Macro & Event Radar

| Day (ET) | Event | Why It Matters |
|----------|-------|----------------|
| Mon 19 | NAHB Housing Market Index; Fed Vice-Chair Barr speaks | Early read on rate-sensitive housing plus fresh Fed rhetoric. |
| Tue 20 | Retail Sales (Jul) | A beat would reinforce the “soft-landing” narrative; a miss revives growth worries. |
| Wed 21 | FOMC Minutes (31 Jul) | Gives color on the September cut debate and “fiscal-dominance” concerns highlighted by Reuters . |
| Thu 22 | Walmart (WMT) Q2 EPS; Initial Jobless Claims; S&P Global Flash PMIs | Walmart sets the tone for consumer-staples and real-economy demand ; claims & PMIs provide real-time growth pulse. |
| Fri 23 | Existing-Home Sales; U-Michigan Inflation Expectations (final) | Keeps the spotlight on sticky shelter inflation. |

*Jackson Hole looms next week, so any hawkish hints in Wednesday’s Minutes could move yields.*

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## 2. Earnings Snapshot

1. **Walmart (Thu, pre-market)** – Consensus EPS $0.72; watch same-store sales and tariff commentary. Zacks notes an Earnings-ESP of +4.95 %, making a beat likely .
2. **Target (Wed, pre-market)** – Street at $1.91 EPS; RBC cautions on a potential miss given softer traffic trends .
3. **Applied Materials, Palo Alto Networks (Thu, after-close)** – Will be read-throughs for semi-cap-ex and AI security spend ahead of Nvidia on 27 Aug .

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## 3. Flow & Sentiment Check

• Smart-money net-inflows last week concentrated in mega-cap Tech and energy refiners; breadth, however, narrowed to 46 % of S&P members (vs 60 % prior week).
• VIX closed just under 11, near YTD lows – a reminder that any surprise data miss could trigger an outsized volatility pop.
• Retail option-call buying picked up in AMD, TSM, and meme favorite GME – classic late-summer gamma chase.

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## 4. Technical Picture

fig

Key levels to watch
• S&P 500: 6 380 (20-d MA) → 6 250 (50-d MA) → 6 470 (ATH).
• Nasdaq 100: 17 780 support; 18 120 resistance.
• VIX: sustained prints below 11 have historically preceded 4-6 % equity pullbacks – keep an eye on any close > 14.

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## 5. Trade Ideas Playbook (1-to-2 week horizon)

1. **Event-driven Pair**
• Long WMT 22 Aug 110 C / Short TGT 21 Aug 155 C – play for a relative beat at Walmart vs. a softer Target print.
2. **Energy Momentum**
• XLE above $116 triggers a momentum add; tight stop $112 (200-d MA catch-up and hurricane season tailwinds).
3. **Rate-Cut Hedge**
• Buy WEEK.B (Roundhill Weekly T-Bill ETF) as an ultra-short-duration cash park; captures any near-term uptick in bill yields without price volatility.
4. **Volatility Re-risk**
• If Retail Sales miss and VIX > 14, sell 1-week SPY 490 puts to fund 2-week NVDA 185 calls ahead of 27 Aug earnings.

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## 6. Risk Management Reminders 🛡️

• Position size light (< 35 % gross) until Jackson Hole clarity.
• Keep trailing stops no wider than the 20-day ATR (currently ~1.3 % for SPX).
• Watch USD strength; a DXY break above 109 could pressure Tech multiples.

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🎯 **Bottom Line**
With just one true mega-cap reporter (Walmart) and no top-tier inflation prints, markets may drift—but low volatility can be a trap. Use the quiet to fine-tune positioning, harvest profits, and prepare playbooks for Jackson Hole and Nvidia’s earnings the following week. Happy trading and stay agile! 💪📈