Prediction for Costco today

Symbols

6/5/2025 01:12pm

Aime

The deep research logic is organized as follows: 

Okay, let's tackle the user's question about Costco's prediction for today. First, I need to gather all the relevant data from the provided references. The user is interested in short-term market movements, so I should focus on recent technical analysis, earnings dates, and any news that might impact the stock today.

Starting with the earnings release date, Reference 1 shows that Costco's earnings are scheduled for May 29, 2025, which is in the past. However, the user is asking about today, June 5, 2025. So, the earnings have already been released. The post-earnings reaction might still be relevant. Looking at References 7 and 8, the earnings report showed strong sales growth, which caused the stock to spike. But the current price data from Reference 10 shows a slight decline on June 4, 2025, with a closing price of $1051.69 and a 0.37% drop. The pre-market data from Reference 15 shows a lower price of $1050.9, indicating some bearish sentiment opening today.

Next, the technical analysis. Reference 2 mentions a bullish trend with a continuation probability of 75%, but the support and resistance levels from Reference 3 show the stock is between narrow and wide resistance levels, with a bearish forecast. The trend similarity forecast in Reference 4 predicts a bearish trend with a potential max loss of 15.98%. The average price target from analysts in Reference 5 is $1080.75, which is a 2.62% upside from the current price, but the GF Value suggests a significant downside. The options trading activity in Reference 6 shows more bearish puts, which might indicate institutional bearishness.

The recent news mentions slowing sales growth in May (Reference 13 and 14) and the impact of tariffs (References 11 and 13). The technical analysis from References 23 and 24 shows mixed signals, with some indicators pointing to a strong buy but others indicating overbought conditions. The trading volume from Reference 25 is around 1.99 million shares on average, which is moderate.

Putting this all together, the stock has mixed signals. The recent earnings were positive, but the market reaction has been mixed. The technical indicators show a bullish trend but with bearish resistance levels. The options activity and analyst targets suggest some bearish pressure. The user is interested in today's prediction, so I need to weigh the current price action, technical levels, and recent news. The pre-market data shows a slight dip, and the resistance levels might cap the upside. The bearish forecast from the support/resistance analysis and the trend similarity model suggest a potential sell-off. However, the bullish continuation probability and analyst upgrades might provide some support. 

I should structure the answer by starting with the conclusion, then break down the analysis into sections: technical setup, market sentiment, and key risks. Use tables to present the data clearly and include the necessary visualizations as per the user's requirements. Make sure to cite all references properly and keep the language engaging but professional.

🌟 Conclusion

Costco (COST) is likely to face bearish pressure today (June 5, 2025) due to mixed technical signals, slowing sales growth, and institutional bearish positioning. However, short-term upside risks exist if the stock breaks above key resistance levels or receives positive post-earnings momentum.

📊 Analysis Breakdown

1. Technical Setup

Metric	Data (as of June 4, 2025)	Implication
Current Price	$1,051.69 ¹²	Below 52-week high ($1,078.24) ³
Trend	Bullish (75% continuation prob.)	Bullish but near resistance levels
Support/Resistance	$988.77–$1,062.03	Bearish (price between narrow and wide resistance)
Volume	1.99M shares (30-day avg.) ⁴	Neutral (moderate liquidity)

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2. Market Sentiment

Source	Signal	Context
Analysts	Buy rating (2.62% upside) ⁵	Bullish (average target: $1,080.75) ⁵
Options Activity	47% bearish puts ⁶	Bearish (institutional hedging) ⁶
Earnings Reaction	+4% spike post-earnings ⁷⁸	Bullish (strong sales growth reported) ⁷⁸

3. Key Risks

Risk Factor	Probability	Impact
Tariff Uncertainty	High ⁹¹⁰	Bearish (supply chain disruptions)
Competition	Medium ⁷⁸	Bearish (Walmart/Target market share pressure)
Valuation	High ⁵³	Bearish (GF Value suggests 31.87% downside) ⁵³

📉 Why Bearish Today?

Price Resistance: COST is stuck between $1,043.77 (narrow resistance) and $1,062.03 (wide resistance) . A breakout failure could trigger a pullback.
Institutional Bearishness: 47% of recent options trades are bearish puts ⁶, signaling professional skepticism.
Earnings Cooling: Despite Q3 beat (+8% sales), the stock has already priced in this news ⁷⁸.

📈 Why Bullish?

Analyst Optimism: 31 analysts project a 2.62% upside to $1,080.75 ⁵.
Strategic Investments: Costco’s warehouse expansion and e-commerce growth (+14.8% Q3) ⁷⁸ could drive long-term momentum.
Tariff Mitigation: Declining commodity prices may reduce input costs ⁵⁹.

🎯 Final Call

COST is Bearish to Neutral for today (June 5, 2025). Watch for a potential breakout above $1,062.03 (wide resistance) or a pullback to $1,007.14 (narrow support) . Stay cautious but ready to act on intraday volatility.

Best of luck! 🚀

Source:

1. COST Closing Price, Trading Volume