How might PLTR's earnings evolve in the next year?

**Palantir's earnings are poised for potential growth in the next year**, considering both positive and negative factors that could influence their financial performance. Here's a detailed analysis:

1. **Potential for Increased Revenue**: The U.S. Army's shift towards Palantir's Vantage platform could lead to a significant contract worth approximately $115 million annually. This contract alone could contribute substantially to Palantir's revenue, potentially increasing it from $401 million to $619 million over four years as noted by analyst Louie DiPalma from William Blair. Additionally, Wedbush analysts predict that Palantir's revenue from the federal government could increase "over the next year," despite Washington's cost-cutting efforts. This suggests a positive outlook for Palantir's earnings in the coming year.
2. **Geopolitical and Inflationary Risks**: On the other hand, geopolitical factors such as U.S. tariffs on Venezuela and China could pose risks to Palantir's operations and the broader market, potentially impacting its earnings. Furthermore, concerns over stagflation and higher-than-anticipated core inflation could lead to a decline in shares, as seen with a 5.96% drop amid inflation concerns. These factors could act as headwinds for Palantir's earnings growth in the next year.
3. **Valuation and Insider Activity**: Palantir's high P/E ratio of 445.89 to 468.47 suggests that the stock may be significantly overvalued, which could indicate a need for caution for investors expecting high returns. Additionally, insider selling activity, with over 6 million shares sold in the past three months, could signal doubts about the company's short-term prospects.

In conclusion, while there are positive indicators for Palantir's earnings growth, including new contracts and potential increased federal government revenue, there are also risks to consider, such as geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures. The company's high valuation and insider selling activity also suggest that investors should approach with caution. Overall, while there is potential for growth, it may be prudent to anticipate a moderate increase in earnings rather than a dramatic surge.