Is PLMR's Q1 forecast a sign of recovery?

**Palomar Holdings' (PLMR) Q1 forecast does not indicate a clear recovery signal.** Here's why:

1. **Earnings Estimate**: Zacks Research has lifted its Q1 2025 earnings estimates for Palomar to $1.40 per share. This is lower than the previous estimate of $1.47 per share. A lower estimate suggests a potential decline in earnings, which does not point towards recovery.
2. **Revenue Estimate**: The estimated revenue for Q1 2025 is $163.09 million. This is slightly higher than the revenue estimated by Zacks Research, which could indicate a slight improvement in sales. However, the difference is not significant enough to suggest a strong recovery.
3. **Comparing to Previous Quarters**: Palomar's Q4 2024 earnings report showed a positive surprise with earnings per share (EPS) of $1.09, surpassing estimates. This suggests an improvement from the previous quarter. However, the Q1 forecast does not build upon this momentum.
4. **Market Expectations**: The market was expecting a year-over-year increase in earnings and revenues for Q4 2024, which Palomar delivered. This expectation was based on the company's historical performance and market conditions. The Q1 forecast does not reflect this optimism.

In conclusion, while there is a slight increase in estimated revenue and a slight decrease in estimated earnings, neither of these changes indicates a strong recovery. The Q1 forecast does not align with the positive surprise seen in Q4 2024 earnings, suggesting that Palomar may not be recovering at this time.