PG price forecast in the next 3 months

The deep research logic is organized as follows: 

Okay, let's tackle the user's question about Procter & Gamble's (PG) price forecast for the next three months. First, I need to gather all the relevant data from the provided references. The user is interested in short-term trends and technical analysis, so I should focus on the technical indicators, recent price movements, and any upcoming events like earnings reports.

Looking at the references, there's a lot of data on PG's stock. The earnings release date is July 29, 2025, which is just a few weeks away. The user's current time is July 17, 2025, so the next three months would cover the period around the earnings and the immediate aftermath. The earnings are expected to show a slight increase in EPS and revenue, but there's also a downgrade from Evercore ISI due to competition from Amazon. That's a key point because it affects the market sentiment.

The technical analysis from the references shows a bearish trend with a continuation probability of 67%. The support and resistance levels are around $155.45 to $164.35. The trend similarity-based forecast predicts a bearish trend with a mean forecast price around $155.99 on July 17, 2025, but the confidence intervals are quite wide, indicating uncertainty. The forecast performance mentions an expected max gain of 27.38% and a max loss of -47.39%, which is a huge range, suggesting high volatility.

The recent news articles mention PG's stock hitting a 52-week low, a downgrade from Evercore ISI, and mixed analyst ratings. The average price target from analysts is around $170.78, which is higher than the current price of $155.62. However, the downgrade and competition concerns might weigh on the stock price before the earnings.

The user's profile indicates they're into short-term trends and technical analysis, so I should structure the answer around the technical indicators, upcoming events, and the analyst consensus. They might be looking for entry, stop-loss, and take-profit levels, but the question is just about the forecast, so I'll focus on that.

I need to present the data clearly, starting with the conclusion, then breaking down the analysis into sections like technical setup, market sentiment, and risk factors. Including tables for the price forecast and support/resistance levels would make it easier to digest. Also, since the user prefers markdown tables, I'll format the data accordingly.

I should also mention the upcoming earnings date as a critical event that could drive volatility. The downgrade and competition from Amazon are negative factors, but the analyst price targets are still bullish, which creates a mixed outlook. The technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, but the analyst targets imply potential upside if the earnings beat expectations.

Finally, I'll wrap it up with a final take that summarizes the key points, emphasizing the high volatility and the need to monitor the earnings closely. Make sure to cite the references properly using the [^Number] format and include the visualization for the price trend forecast as per the user's requirements.

### **Conclusion** 🎯
**Procter & Gamble (PG)** faces **mixed short-term prospects** with **bearish technicals**, **downgrade risks**, and **upcoming earnings**. Based on **technical analysis**, **market sentiment**, and **analyst forecasts**, here’s the **price forecast for the next 3 months**:

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### **Analysis** 📊

#### 1. **Technical Setup**
- **Current Trend**: Bearish (33-day duration, 67% continuation probability) .
- **Support/Resistance Levels**:
| Level (Wide) | Level (Narrow) | Current Position |
|--------------|-----------------|-------------------|
| $155.45 | $157.68 | Below Wide Support |
| $162.12 | $164.35 | |
- **Price Forecast**:
| Date | Mean Forecast | 34% CI (Low/High) | 68% CI (Low/High) |
|------------|---------------|-------------------|-------------------|
| 2025-07-17 | $155.99 | $153.74 / $158.24 | $151.49 / $158.24 |
| 2025-07-29 | $137.13 | $115.83 / $158.43 | $94.53 / $158.43 |
| 2025-08-14 | $138.60 | $112.65 / $164.54 | $86.71 / $164.54 |

#### 2. **Market Sentiment**
- **Earnings Risk**: PG’s Q4 earnings (July 29, 2025) are expected to report EPS of $1.43 (+2.14% YoY) and revenue of $20.85B (+1.54% YoY) . However, Evercore ISI downgraded PG to “In Line” due to Amazon competition and slow organic sales growth (1-3% vs. Street’s 2.4%) .
- **Analyst Consensus**: Moderate Buy (20 analysts), with a 12-month average price target of $170.78 (+11.85% upside) .

#### 3. **Risk Factors**
- **Competition**: Amazon dominates 50% of U.S. HPC growth, squeezing PG’s market share .
- **Valuation**: PG trades at a Forward P/E of 22.36, slightly above sector averages .
- **Liquidity**: Recent trading volume (~8.32M shares) suggests moderate liquidity .

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### **Price Forecast** 📉
| Scenario | Probability | Price Range (3M) | Key Catalysts |
|----------------|-------------|-------------------|---------------|
| **Bearish** | 67% | $137.13–$155.99 | Earnings miss, Amazon competition |
| **Bullish** | 33% | $155.99–$170.78 | Earnings beat, analyst upgrades |

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### **Final Take** 🎯
PG’s **short-term outlook** is **highly volatile**, with **bearish technicals** and **earnings uncertainty**. Investors should **monitor the July 29 earnings** closely and **brace for price swings**. The **$155.45–$164.35 range** remains critical for breakout/breakdown signals. 🚨