Will PD's 2026 earnings beat expectations?

**PagerDuty's 2026 earnings are likely to beat expectations.** Here's a detailed analysis supporting this conclusion:

1. **Strong Financial Performance in 2025**: PagerDuty's fourth-quarter (Q4) performance in 2025 exceeded expectations with an EPS of $0.22, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.16. Revenue for the quarter grew by 9.3% year-over-year to $121.4 million, exceeding analysts' estimates of $119.53 million.
2. **Positive Growth Trends**: The company's annual recurring revenue (ARR) stood at $494 million as of January 31, 2025, reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase. The number of customers generating at least $100,000 in annual revenue increased by 6% to 849, and the total paid customer count rose to 15,114.
3. **Upcoming Initiatives**: PagerDuty's introduction of new products and features, such as Agentic AI and automation tools within PagerDuty Advance, is expected to drive further growth. These innovations are likely to enhance the company's market position and revenue potential in 2026.
4. **Stock Buyback Program**: The recent announcement of a $150 million stock buyback program indicates confidence in the company's financial health and future earnings potential. Such moves are often a signal that management believes the stock is undervalued or that earnings will exceed expectations.
5. **Analyst Expectations for 2026**: The estimated EPS for PagerDuty in 2026 is $9.1, and the estimated revenue is $1.53 billion. Considering the company's recent performance and growth trends, it is reasonable to expect that PagerDuty's actual earnings in 2026 may surpass these estimates.

In conclusion, PagerDuty's solid financial performance, positive growth indicators, upcoming product initiatives, stock buyback program, and analyst expectations all point to a likely beat of earnings expectations in 2026.