Can OXY's future earnings recover from Q4's drop?

**Occidental Petroleum's (OXY) future earnings are likely to recover from the anticipated drop in Q4**, considering the following points:

1. **Consistent Operational Performance**: OXY has demonstrated strong operational execution despite weather disruptions and commodity price volatility. The company set a new record for the highest quarterly US production, which contributed to its Q3 earnings outperformance.
2. **Debt Reduction and Financial Health**: OXY has made significant progress in debt reduction, repaying $4 billion in the third quarter, nearly 90% of its year-term commitment. This financial discipline positions the company well for future earnings recovery.
3. **Low-Carbon Ventures and Capital Budgets**: The company has allocated a substantial capital budget to low-carbon ventures and chemicals, indicating a strategic focus on growth areas that may offer improved profitability. The capital budget for low-carbon ventures is approximately $450 million for 2025, and for chemicals, it is approximately $900 million.
4. **Production Guidance and Permian Basin Increase**: OXY has provided positive production guidance for the fourth quarter, with an expected midpoint of 1.45 million BOE per day. Additionally, there is an anticipated increase in Permian production by 12,000 BOE per day in Q4.
5. **Analyst Sentiments and Price Targets**: The average analyst price target for OXY is $64.83, suggesting a potential upside of 25.5% from the current levels. This indicates that analysts are cautiously optimistic about OXY's future performance.
6. **Market Performance and Warren Buffett's Increased Stake**: Despite underperformance year-to-date, OXY's stock has shown recent trading gains and has outpaced the S&P 500's daily loss in some instances. Furthermore, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway increasing its stake in OXY to 28.2% reflects confidence in the company's future prospects.

In conclusion, while OXY may experience a temporary drop in earnings in Q4, the company's strong operational performance, debt reduction efforts, strategic investments in low-carbon ventures, and positive analyst sentiments suggest that its future earnings are poised for recovery.