OK another one to keep my eye on. Next on my profitability list. Is D wave, quantum ticker, QBTS? I actually have a pretty large position in them, market value $313, but my total return is 115 1/2 percent. What can you tell me about that?

🏁 Conclusion
D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) remains a pure-play **moon-shot on commercial quantum computing**. A 115 % gain is fantastic, but with the stock now valued at roughly **150–170 × trailing sales** and burning >$130 m a year, the prudent move is to trim 30-50 % of the position, ride the rest as a “house-money” call option, and only add if (a) the price pulls back toward the $10–11 area or (b) concrete revenue inflection is visible in the next two quarters. 🚦🪐

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## 1 | Fundamentals at a glance

| Item | Latest reading | Context |
|------|---------------|---------|
| Price (1 Jul close) | **$14.82** | +115 % vs. your cost basis |
| Market cap | **$3.2 bn** | 308.9 m shares O/S |
| Revenue (TTM) | **$21 m** | IonQ $28 m, Rigetti $13 m |
| Net loss (TTM) | **–$132 m** | Cash burn ≈ –$30 m/quarter |
| Cash on hand | $40.9 m (Mar-25) + $27.3 m (Jun update) | ≈ 4-5 quarters of runway |
| Debt | ~$30 m | Convertible notes at 9.5 % |
| Price-to-Sales | ~155 × | IonQ 90 ×, RGTI 60 × |

*Take-away:* spectacular growth expectations are already embedded.

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## 2 | Why the stock doubled … and why it’s pausing

Bullish drivers
• Q1 revenue surprise $15 m vs. est. $9 m, driven by U.S. DoE and global automotive contracts.
• NVIDIA “CUDA-Q” partnership hype (May ‘25) positioned D-Wave as the *annealing* complement to gate-model players.
• Tiny effective float (~18 % free), so incremental demand moves price fast.

Near-term head-winds
1. Cash runway ≈ 12 months; another equity raise or strategic investment likely.
2. Government contract cycle lull until FY-26 budgets pass Congress (Oct).
3. Sector rotation: IonQ, Rigetti, Arq all slipped 8-12 % last week as rates ticked up.

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## 3 | Technical map

| Level | Meaning |
|-------|---------|
| $13.80 | 10-day EMA – just breached Monday |
| $11.20–11.50 | Post-earnings gap floor & 23 % Fib retrace – first strong support |
| $9.80 | 50-day SMA + psychological line |
| $17.60 | Recent high – breakout trigger |

Momentum indicators (RSI 64 → 55; MACD rolling) suggest a **cool-off toward $12-11** is the base-case unless a fresh contract headline drops.

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## 4 | Catalyst calendar

Date / window | What to watch | Potential impact
------------- | ------------- | ----------------
Mid-July | DoE Quantum Computing Testbed RFP decision | Win could add $5-7 m ARR, spark 15-20 % pop
Early Aug | Q2 results & FY 25 sales guidance | Street looking for ≥ $25 m FY rev run-rate
Q4-25 | Possible strategic stake sale (rumoured Korean chaebol) | Non-dilutive cash = bullish
Jan 26 | Debt-maturity refi or convert | Dilution risk if price < $15

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## 5 | Game-plan suggestions

| Objective | Action | Rationale |
|-----------|--------|-----------|
| Protect big gain | Sell 30-50 % now or on any bounce > $16 | Locks profits, halves capital at risk |
| Stay exposed | Keep remainder w/ stop < $11 | Below support = breakout failure |
| Add more? | Only on decisive close > $18 **or** dip to $10–11 | Avoid buying mid-range chop |
| Long-term holder | Re-evaluate after Q2 print & capital-raising clarity | Let fundamentals, not FOMO, guide size |

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## 6 | Probability map (12 mo)

| Scenario | Odds | Price band | Driver |
|----------|------|------------|--------|
| Base: sales double to $40 m, cash raise via equity | 50 % | $11–18 | Valuation compresses to ~80 × sales |
| Bull: DoE + major cloud partner, non-dilutive funding | 30 % | $18–26 | Market cap chases IonQ multiple |
| Bear: funding gap, dilution at <$10 | 20 % | $6–10 | Cash crunch or tech setback |

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### 🎯 Takeaway

QBTS is the first mover in *quantum annealing*—a niche that may carve real value—but the stock price is already projecting flawless execution. Trimming into strength keeps your win intact and lets you sleep through the inevitable quantum-tech volatility. If a fat contract validates the thesis, you’ll still have meaningful upside with your remaining stake. That’s disciplined, data-driven investing—well done! 🚀🔬

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: FinQuery snapshot – QBTS MRQ revenue, net income & market cap, 2025-07-01.
: FinQuery capital-structure table, 2024-12-31.
: FinQuery TTM revenue, cash & net-loss data, 2025-07-01.