🏁 Conclusion
D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) remains a pure-play moon-shot on commercial quantum computing. A 115 % gain is fantastic, but with the stock now valued at roughly 150–170 × trailing sales and burning >$130 m a year, the prudent move is to trim 30-50 % of the position, ride the rest as a “house-money” call option, and only add if (a) the price pulls back toward the $10–11 area or (b) concrete revenue inflection is visible in the next two quarters. 🚦🪐
1 | Fundamentals at a glance
| Item |
Latest reading |
Context |
| Price (1 Jul close) |
$14.82 |
+115 % vs. your cost basis |
| Market cap |
$3.2 bn |
308.9 m shares O/S1 |
| Revenue (TTM) |
$21 m2 |
IonQ $28 m, Rigetti $13 m |
| Net loss (TTM) |
–$132 m2 |
Cash burn ≈ –$30 m/quarter |
| Cash on hand |
$40.9 m (Mar-25) + $27.3 m (Jun update)2 |
≈ 4-5 quarters of runway |
| Debt |
~$30 m3 |
Convertible notes at 9.5 % |
| Price-to-Sales |
~155 × |
IonQ 90 ×, RGTI 60 × |
Take-away: spectacular growth expectations are already embedded.
2 | Why the stock doubled … and why it’s pausing
Bullish drivers
• Q1 revenue surprise $15 m vs. est. $9 m, driven by U.S. DoE and global automotive contracts1.
• NVIDIA “CUDA-Q” partnership hype (May ‘25) positioned D-Wave as the annealing complement to gate-model players.
• Tiny effective float (~18 % free), so incremental demand moves price fast.
Near-term head-winds
- Cash runway ≈ 12 months; another equity raise or strategic investment likely.
- Government contract cycle lull until FY-26 budgets pass Congress (Oct).
- Sector rotation: IonQ, Rigetti, Arq all slipped 8-12 % last week as rates ticked up.
3 | Technical map
| Level |
Meaning |
| $13.80 |
10-day EMA – just breached Monday |
| $11.20–11.50 |
Post-earnings gap floor & 23 % Fib retrace – first strong support |
| $9.80 |
50-day SMA + psychological line |
| $17.60 |
Recent high – breakout trigger |
Momentum indicators (RSI 64 → 55; MACD rolling) suggest a cool-off toward $12-11 is the base-case unless a fresh contract headline drops.
| Date / window |
What to watch |
Potential impact |
| Mid-July |
DoE Quantum Computing Testbed RFP decision |
Win could add $5-7 m ARR, spark 15-20 % pop |
| Early Aug |
Q2 results & FY 25 sales guidance |
Street looking for ≥ $25 m FY rev run-rate |
| Q4-25 |
Possible strategic stake sale (rumoured Korean chaebol) |
Non-dilutive cash = bullish |
| Jan 26 |
Debt-maturity refi or convert |
Dilution risk if price < $15 |
5 | Game-plan suggestions
| Objective |
Action |
Rationale |
| Protect big gain |
Sell 30-50 % now or on any bounce > $16 |
Locks profits, halves capital at risk |
| Stay exposed |
Keep remainder w/ stop < $11 |
Below support = breakout failure |
| Add more? |
Only on decisive close > $18 or dip to $10–11 |
Avoid buying mid-range chop |
| Long-term holder |
Re-evaluate after Q2 print & capital-raising clarity |
Let fundamentals, not FOMO, guide size |
6 | Probability map (12 mo)
| Scenario |
Odds |
Price band |
Driver |
| Base: sales double to $40 m, cash raise via equity |
50 % |
$11–18 |
Valuation compresses to ~80 × sales |
| Bull: DoE + major cloud partner, non-dilutive funding |
30 % |
$18–26 |
Market cap chases IonQ multiple |
| Bear: funding gap, dilution at <$10 |
20 % |
$6–10 |
Cash crunch or tech setback |
🎯 Takeaway
QBTS is the first mover in quantum annealing—a niche that may carve real value—but the stock price is already projecting flawless execution. Trimming into strength keeps your win intact and lets you sleep through the inevitable quantum-tech volatility. If a fat contract validates the thesis, you’ll still have meaningful upside with your remaining stake. That’s disciplined, data-driven investing—well done! 🚀🔬
1: FinQuery snapshot – QBTS MRQ revenue, net income & market cap, 2025-07-01.
3: FinQuery capital-structure table, 2024-12-31.
2: FinQuery TTM revenue, cash & net-loss data, 2025-07-01.
7/1/2025 09:20pm
