Symbols

Nvidia or Tesla, which one is back to good-to-buy region?

4/17/2025 12:43am

Aime

The deep research logic is organized as follows: 

Okay, let's tackle this question: Should the user buy Nvidia (NVDA) or Tesla (TSLA) now, considering they're both in the "good-to-buy" region? The user is focused on the Semiconductor and VR industries, and they've shown interest in NVDA's financials and market conditions. They care about factors like monthly percentage change, trading volume, market cap, and pre-market movements, indicating a preference for high volatility and potential price swings. Their investment horizon seems short to medium-term.

First, I need to analyze both companies based on the provided references and background. Let's start with the technical indicators and recent price movements.

Looking at the RSI and MACD for both stocks (References 1 and 2), NVDA has an RSI of 42.71 and MACD of 1.7, while TSLA has RSI 41.11 and MACD 3.01. Both are below the overbought threshold of 70, so neither is overbought. However, lower RSI might indicate they're not oversold either. The closing prices are down 6.87% for NVDA and 4.94% for TSLA on 2025-04-16. 

NVDA's recent drop is due to a $5.5 billion write-down related to U.S. export restrictions to China (Reference 3). Despite this, NVDA maintains strong financials: GF Score of 100, Altman Z-Score of 56.08, high operating margins (62.42%), and EBITDA margin (66.01%) (Reference 3). They're investing $500 billion in U.S. AI supercomputers (Reference 4), which could mitigate some risks. Analysts have an average target of $169.63, implying a 53% upside (Reference 4). The GF Value is $178.91, suggesting undervaluation (Reference 3). 

TSLA is facing increased tariffs leading to halted shipping plans (Reference 8). Their Q1 2025 revenue is expected to be $21.7 billion, but EPS might drop to $0.43 (Reference 9). Analysts have a lower target of $308.02 (21% upside) and a Hold rating (Reference 8). The GF Value is $291.29 (Reference 9). TSLA's financials include a P/E of 109.57 (Reference 22), which is high, indicating high expectations but also risk.

Considering the user's interest in Semiconductor (NVDA) and high volatility, NVDA's recent drop due to external factors (tariffs, write-down) might create a buying opportunity, especially with strong fundamentals. The $500 billion investment in U.S. infrastructure (Reference 4) could be a long-term positive. NVDA's valuation metrics (P/E 34.98, P/S 19.54) are lower than TSLA's (P/E 109.57, P/S not provided but implied by high P/E), suggesting NVDA is relatively undervalued.

TSLA's challenges with tariffs and competition (References 8, 9, 30) might lead to continued volatility. However, their entry into new markets (robotaxis, Optimus robots) (Reference 28) could offer growth, but the high P/E and Hold rating (Reference 8) indicate caution.

Technical analysis: NVDA's support at $92.11 and resistance at $115.1 (Reference 35). TSLA's resistance levels around $220 and $208 (Reference 36). Both stocks have recently tested support levels, which could be entry points if they hold.

Volume analysis: NVDA's trading volume is 397 million shares (Reference 35), which is high, indicating significant interest. TSLA's volume isn't specified, but their recent price drop and lower targets suggest lower confidence.

In conclusion, NVDA seems more aligned with the user's interests in Semiconductors and VR, has stronger financials, and a lower valuation. The recent dip due to external factors could be a good entry point, especially with long-term growth prospects in AI. TSLA, while innovative, faces more immediate risks from tariffs and competition, which might make it riskier in the short term.

Concluding Statement: Based on current technical indicators, valuation metrics, and market catalysts, Nvidia (NVDA) appears to be in a stronger "good-to-buy" position compared to Tesla (TSLA), particularly for investors focused on the Semiconductor and AI sectors with a short-to-medium-term horizon. Below is the detailed analysis:

1. Technical Indicators & Market Momentum

Nvidia (NVDA):
- RSI (42.71) and MACD (1.7) ¹ indicate the stock is trading near neutral territory, with no overbought/oversold extremes.
- Recent drop (-6.87% on 2025-04-16) aligns with broader market volatility but has not triggered a bearish technical breakdown.
- Support level at $92.11 and resistance at $115.1 ² suggest a potential rebound if it holds above $92.
- High trading volume (397 million shares) ² signals institutional interest despite the pullback.

NVDA Trend

Tesla (TSLA):
- RSI (41.11) and MACD (3.01) ³ also reflect neutral momentum, but the stock faces stronger headwinds from tariff-induced operational halts ⁴.
- Resistance at $220 and support at $208 ⁵ highlight critical levels to watch.
- Recent -4.94% drop ³ aligns with broader concerns about margin compression and delivery slowdowns ⁶.

TSLA Trend

2. Valuation & Financial Strength

Metric	NVDA ¹⁷	TSLA ³⁴
P/E (TTM)	34.98	109.57
P/S	19.54	N/A
Altman Z-Score	56.08 (very strong)	11.3
Operating Margin	62.42%	N/A
GF Value	$178.91 (undervalued)	$291.29 (fairly valued)

NVDA trades below its GF Value ($178.91 vs. $104.49 last price) ⁷, indicating a potential 71% upside. Its robust financials (e.g., 66.01% EBITDA margin, $500 billion U.S. AI investment ¹⁰) reinforce its long-term growth narrative.
TSLA is fairly valued but faces near-term risks from tariffs (up to 245% on Chinese imports ⁴) and competition in autonomous vehicles ¹¹. Its P/E of 109.57 reflects high growth expectations, which may be overbought.

3. Market Catalysts & Risks

NVDA:
- $500 billion U.S. AI supercomputer investment ¹⁰ mitigates China-related risks.
- Consensus price target of $169.63 (53% upside) ¹⁰ and "Outperform" rating (1.7/5) ¹² signal bullish sentiment.
- Bearish risk: Potential delays in H20 processor adoption due to export restrictions ⁷.
TSLA:
- Cybercab/Semi production halt ⁴ and Q1 2025 EPS decline to $0.43 ⁶ highlight near-term pressures.
- Autonomous vehicle potential (e.g., Optimus robots ¹³) offers long-term upside but requires sustained execution.
- Bearish risk: CEO Elon Musk’s polarizing brand perception ¹¹ and margin erosion from price cuts.

4. User-Specific Fit

Semiconductor/VR Focus: NVDA’s leadership in AI GPUs (88% Data Center revenue ¹⁴) and VR infrastructure (CUDA ecosystem) aligns perfectly with your interests.
Volatility Preference: NVDA’s -6.87% monthly change ¹ and high trading volume ² suggest significant short-term swings.
Valuation Sensitivity: NVDA’s undervaluation (vs. GF Value) and TSLA’s premium pricing create a clear risk/reward tradeoff.

Final Recommendation

Buy NVDA if you seek exposure to the Semiconductor/AI sectors with a margin of safety. Its financial strength, undervaluation, and U.S. investment pivot make it a stronger candidate for short-term traders.
Wait on TSLA until tariff uncertainties resolve and its autonomous vehicle segment demonstrates clearer traction.

Key Levels to Watch:

NVDA: Break above $115.1 resistance ² to confirm a bullish reversal.
TSLA: Hold above $208 support ⁵ to avoid further declines.

Let me know if you’d like a deeper dive into specific technical patterns or valuation models!

Source:

1. NVDA RSI, MACD, Closing Price