How did NIO's Q3 2024 earnings surprise analysts?

NIO's Q3 2024 earnings fell short of analysts' expectations in terms of net income, but delivered on vehicle deliveries and revenue forecasts.

1. Net Income Performance:
   • NIO reported a net income loss of $974.27 million for Q3 2024.
   • This result was a surprise to analysts, who had not anticipated such a significant loss.
2. Revenue Performance:
   • NIO’s revenue for the quarter was not reported directly in the available data. However, it is known that NIO expects third-quarter revenue to be between 19.11 billion yuan and 19.67 billion yuan, which is slightly higher than the estimated 19.32 billion yuan.
   • This revenue forecast indicates a continued growth trajectory, which may not have been fully appreciated by analysts.
3. Vehicle Deliveries and Market Share:
   • NIO delivered 57,373 vehicles in Q2, up by 143.9% year-over-year and 90.9% quarter-over-quarter.
   • The company captured over 40% of the market share in the battery electric vehicle segment priced above RMB 300,000 in China.
   • For Q3, NIO anticipates delivering between 61,000 and 63,000 vehicles, surpassing the consensus estimate of 56,770.
4. Stock Market Reaction:
   • Despite the negative net income surprise, NIO's stock rose by 5% in premarket trading after the company issued better-than-expected delivery forecasts for Q3.
   • Analysts remain cautiously optimistic, with a Moderate Buy consensus rating, indicating that the positive outlook on deliveries and revenue may be influencing their views.

In conclusion, while NIO's Q3 2024 earnings fell below analysts' net income expectations, the company's strong vehicle deliveries, revenue growth, and optimistic outlook for the third quarter have likely balanced out the negative surprise.