Can NIO sustain its Q3 2024 earnings growth?

**NIO's Q3 2024 earnings growth outlook appears positive**, considering the following points:

1. **Strong Delivery Forecasts**: NIO has forecasted deliveries between 61,000 to 63,000 vehicles for Q3 2024, surpassing the consensus estimate of 56,770. This indicates a potential for increased revenue due to higher sales volumes.
2. **Revenue Projections**: Alongside the delivery forecast, NIO expects revenue to be between RMB 19.11 billion and RMB 19.67 billion (approximately $2.63 billion to $2.7 billion), representing year-over-year growth. This aligns with analysts' expectations and suggests a stable revenue trajectory.
3. **Gross Margin Improvements**: NIO has projected a gross margin of approximately RMB 1.86 billion for Q3 2024, with an anticipated reduction in the gross profit margin loss compared to the previous quarter. This suggests that NIO is working on narrowing its gross margin loss, which could lead to improved profitability.
4. **Analyst Optimism**: Citi's maintained Buy rating on NIO with a price target of $7.00 reflects confidence in NIO's performance. Additionally, Morgan Stanley analyst Tim Hsiao is closely watching the L60 model and second-half gross margin trajectory, which indicates a positive sentiment.
5. **Strategic Initiatives**: NIO's focus on efficient R&D, leveraging the growth potential in the mass market, and optimizing its product portfolio could contribute to steady improvements in gross profit and cost efficiency. These strategic efforts may support sustained earnings growth.

However, it's important to note that NIO's stock price has experienced a significant decline over the past year, and the company's long-term profitability is still under question. Despite these positive indicators, investors should monitor NIO's performance closely, especially regarding profitability and market share sustainability.