Is NFLX's Q1 2025 EPS forecast optimistic?


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Netflix's Q1 2025 EPS forecast appears to be cautiously optimistic. Here's why:
- Analyst Price Target: The average analyst price target for Netflix in Q1 2025 is $1042.031, which is significantly higher than the current price of $933.852. This suggests that analysts are generally optimistic about the stock's future performance.
- Recent Performance: Netflix's stock surged over 13% in after-hours trading following the release of its Q4 2024 earnings report34. This positive momentum could indicate that investors are optimistic about the company's future prospects.
- Earnings Guidance: Netflix has provided guidance for Q1 2025, with an EPS forecast of $5.5856, which is slightly below the analyst consensus of $5.976. This suggests that while the company is being cautious, they are still confident in achieving solid earnings for the period.
- Revenue Outlook: Netflix has raised its revenue outlook for 2025, with a projected range of $43.5 billion to $44.5 billion47. This is a significant upside from the previous year, indicating a positive growth trajectory.
- Subscriber Growth: The company has seen a significant increase in global streaming paid memberships, with a record net addition of 19 million paid subscribers in Q434. This strong subscriber growth is a key driver for revenue and suggests that the company's content strategy is effective.
- Price Hikes: Netflix has confirmed price hikes in various regions, which should contribute to revenue growth as the company leverages its pricing power4. This is a positive sign, as it indicates that the company is confident in maintaining and increasing its average revenue per user.
In conclusion, while the Q1 2025 EPS forecast is not overly aggressive, it is supported by the company's strong financial performance, positive market sentiment, and optimistic growth projections.
Source:
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NFLX Average Analyst Price Target
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