How did NEM's Q4 2024 earnings surprise investors?

Newmont's (NEM) Q4 2024 earnings report exceeded investor expectations in terms of net income and revenue, but fell slightly short of expectations in terms of diluted EPS.

1. **Net Income and Revenue**:
- Newmont reported a net income of $1.42 billion for Q4 2024, which is a significant increase from the $573 million reported in the same quarter of the previous year. This indicates a strong financial performance for the company.
- The total revenue for the quarter was $5.65 billion, compared to $3.91 billion in the same quarter of the previous year. This represents a 42.84% growth, demonstrating a robust business operation and market performance.

2. **Diluted EPS**:
- The diluted EPS for Q4 2024 was $1.24, which is a substantial increase from the $0.52 reported in the same quarter of the previous year. This indicates that not only has the company's net income increased, but it has also been able to distribute these profits more effectively among the diluted shares.
- However, this figure was slightly lower than the analyst estimate of $1.33 per share. This suggests that while the company's earnings were strong, they may have been slightly below what some analysts had anticipated.

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Net Income YoY|Total Revenue YoY|Diluted EPS YoY|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|NEM|NEM.N|Newmont|2024 Q1|-50.688705234159784|50.16797312430011|-65.90909090909092|169|
|NEM|NEM.N|Newmont|2024 Q2|452.90322580645164|64.07007081625046|289.4736842105263|169|
|NEM|NEM.N|Newmont|2024 Q3|466.8711656441718|84.71720818291215|300.00000000000006|169|
|NEM|NEM.N|Newmont|2024 Q4|145.13977128335452|42.835481425322214|138.39009287925697|169|

3. **Analyst Expectations**:
- Prior to the earnings release, analysts had set an average target price of $50 with a consensus rating of "Neutral" for Newmont. This suggests that while there was potential for growth, analysts were cautious in their expectations.
- Following the earnings release, Newmont's stock traded at $48.08, which is below the average analyst price target. This could indicate that the market may have had concerns or reacted to certain aspects of the earnings report that were not fully appreciated by investors.

In conclusion, Newmont's Q4 2024 earnings report was generally in line with analyst expectations, with the company exceeding forecasts in terms of net income and revenue, but slightly missing expectations in terms of diluted EPS. The company's strong financial performance and growth prospects may be reflected in the positive analyst ratings and target price adjustments, despite some minor discrepancies with expectations.