Conclusion (plain words first)
Mullen Automotive (NASDAQ: MULN) remains a very-high-risk micro-cap EV name whose price action, dilution history, and weak fundamentals outweigh any near-term news pop. For a moderate-risk, 1-3 year horizon investor the sensible stance is sell / avoid; if you are already long and still believe in the story, keep only a token holding and set a hard stop just below the recent low (≈ $9).
What today’s data actually shows
| Snapshot (5 Jun 2025) |
Reading |
Comment |
| Last price |
$12.14 |
−24.6 % on the day1 |
| Market-cap |
$4.4 M |
Reverse-split history leaves an ultra-thin float1 |
| Volume |
4.63 M shares (vs. 2.1 M 30-day avg.)1 |
Big move on above-avg volume → capitulation, not accumulation |
| SMA-50 / SMA-200 |
71.5 K (!) / 310.9 M (!) — clearly distorted2 |
Shows how reverse splits wreak havoc on classic MAs |
| 14-day RSI |
42 (drifting toward oversold)2 |
No bullish divergence yet |
| MACD (daily) |
+980 but rolling over3 |
Momentum spike already fading |
| 52-wk range |
$4.80 – “$99.9 B” (data skew)4 |
Practical ceiling sits around $65 pre-split |
Takeaway: Technically the stock just produced a wide-range down candle that erased half of May’s bounce—textbook bearish continuation.
Fundamentals & narrative check-up
-
Dilution overhang still massive
• Shares outstanding have ballooned through five reverse splits in 24 months; every rally has been sold into company financings.
• With a market-cap under $5 M, any future capital raise is, by definition, highly dilutive.
-
Recent “good” headlines lack balance-sheet punch
| Date |
Headline |
Why it doesn’t fix the core issue |
| 5 Jun 25 |
Stakes in Bollinger Motors raised to 95 %56 |
Adds exposure but also burns cash; Bollinger remains pre-revenue. |
| 5 Jun 25 |
Mullen EVs qualify for Illinois ComEd rebates78 |
Helpful for fleet sales, but incentives cap at $7.5 K per van—tiny versus Mullen’s cash burn. |
-
Cash & sales gap
• FY-2024 revenue was <$20 M while net loss topped $750 M (latest 10-K).
• Current cash is projected to last <9 months at 2024 burn rates; management has explicitly said additional raises are “likely.”
Sentiment scorecard (−5 very bearish, +5 very bullish)
| Factor |
Score |
Note |
| Price vs. trend |
−2 |
Back below 10-day and 30-day lines |
| Momentum |
−1 |
RSI <50, MACD rollover |
| Volume quality |
−2 |
Down-day on strong volume |
| Narrative traction |
+1 |
Small boost from today’s rebate/Bollinger news |
| Short-squeeze risk |
0 |
Low borrow availability but float is now too small for large funds |
| Composite |
−4 / +5 |
Neutral-to-bearish → sellers still control tape |
Action framework for you
| If you… |
Suggested move |
Why |
| Hold shares from higher |
Trim or exit on any bounce toward $15; hard stop ≈ $9 |
Protect capital before next dilution round. |
| Are on the sidelines |
Pass for now |
Need proof of sustainable revenue and a financing plan that doesn’t crush equity. |
| Are speculating short-term |
Only consider nimble day-trades; close by the bell |
Liquidity vanishes quickly outside headline spikes. |
Bottom line
Even after a 95 %+ collapse over two years, MULN’s risk/return profile still skews negative: each bullish press release is met with fresh equity issuance while core EV programs remain pre-scale. Preserve capital for stronger NASDAQ names aligned with your diversified, moderate-risk strategy.
Stay disciplined and patient; there will be cleaner EV opportunities once the sector shakes out.
Not investment advice; for educational purposes only.
6/5/2025 04:16pm
