Is MLAB's Q4 2025 forecast too conservative?

**Mesa Laboratories' (MLAB) Q4 2025 forecast appears to be conservative**, considering the company's historical performance and recent trends. Here's why:

1. **Comparison with Historical Growth Rates**: MLAB's historical growth rate for revenue has been approximately 18% per annum over the past five years. The forecast for Q4 2025 suggests a growth rate of around 9% year-on-year. This indicates that the forecast is conservative when compared to the company's historical average.
2. **Recent Performance**: In Q3 2025, MLAB experienced a significant increase in revenue, with a 17.5% year-over-year growth. This recent momentum suggests that the company has the potential to exceed the conservative Q4 2025 forecast.
3. **Market Challenges**: It's important to note that MLAB has faced challenges, particularly in the Clinical Genomics sector, which may have impacted growth. However, the company's positive outlook and the increase in operating income suggest resilience and the potential to overcome these challenges.
4. **Analyst Expectations**: Analysts had initially expected a lower revenue for Q4 2025, which MLAB surpassed with a revenue of $58.9 million, indicating that the company's performance may be better than what the conservative forecast suggests.

In conclusion, while the Q4 2025 forecast is based on current market conditions and historical data, it is reasonable to question whether it is too conservative given the company's recent performance and potential to overcome market challenges.