Is MELI's Q1 2025 forecast too conservative?

MELI's Q1 2025 forecast does not appear to be overly conservative based on the following points:

1. Bullish Market Sentiment: Recent market sentiment surrounding MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) has been positive. A bullish thesis on MELI highlights the company's strong market leadership in Latin America's expanding e-commerce sector, which is expected to surpass $1 trillion by 2027. This growth potential supports a more optimistic outlook for MELI's future performance.
2. Financial Projections: The forecast for Q1 2025 projects a substantial upside in MELI's fair value. Using a ten-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, the model forecasts a 16% compound annual revenue growth rate (CAGR) from 2024 to 2034. This estimate acknowledges a natural deceleration from MELI’s historic 56% revenue CAGR between 2018 and 2024 while still indicating robust growth expectations.
3. Recent Performance and Analyst Expectations: MELI has delivered an impressive 34% return over the past year, significantly outpacing the market’s 11% gain. Analysts' expectations for Q1 2025 project an 15.34% increase in EPS and a 27% escalation in revenue compared to the same quarter of the previous year. These projections are in line with the company's historical performance and market trends, suggesting a balanced view of MELI's potential.
4. Institutional Investor Confidence: Institutional investors have shown confidence in MELI, with several recent investments and increased holdings. For example, Wambolt & Associates LLC acquired a new stake in MELI, and TIAA Trust National Association significantly increased its holdings. This influx of institutional capital can be a bullish signal, as it reflects faith in MELI's growth prospects.

In conclusion, MELI's Q1 2025 forecast does not seem conservative given the company's strong recent performance, positive market sentiment, and optimistic growth projections.