Can MDT sustain its earnings momentum in 2025?

**Medtronic's (MDT) ability to sustain its earnings momentum in 2025 appears challenging based on current indicators and market analyses.** Here's a detailed assessment:

1. **Recent Performance and Trends**:
- Medtronic's net income declined by 2.54% to $1.3 billion in Q3 2025 compared to the same period in the previous year.
- Despite a slight dip in net income, the company's diluted EPS grew by 2.02% to $1.01.
- Total revenue increased by 2.51% to $8.29 billion.

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Net Income YoY|Total Revenue YoY|Diluted EPS YoY|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|MDT|MDT.N|Medtronic|2024 Q4|-44.52861952861953|0.526685393258427|-44.31818181818182|169|
|MDT|MDT.N|Medtronic|2025 Q1|31.618569636135508|2.765515450532329|35.593220338983066|169|
|MDT|MDT.N|Medtronic|2025 Q2|40.28540065861691|5.247995991983967|45.58823529411764|169|
|MDT|MDT.N|Medtronic|2025 Q3|-2.543006731488407|2.509580912350105|2.020202020202022|169|

2. **Market Analysts' Perspectives**:
- Analysts have set a neutral consensus rating on Medtronic with an average price target of $99.5, indicating a potential upside from the current price.
- However, estimates for the current quarter show a slight decrease in earnings, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate predicting an EPS of $1.58, reflecting an 8.22% increase year-over-year, but a -0.7% change in the last 30 days.
- The Zacks Rank, which considers earnings estimate revisions, assigns Medtronic a #3 (Hold) rating, suggesting a neutral stance with no immediate catalysts for a significant price movement.
3. **Dividend and Financial Stability**:
- Medtronic is part of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats, indicating a history of consistent dividend growth.
- The company recently announced a cash dividend of $0.70 per ordinary share for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, payable on April 11, 2025.
- This dividend reaffirms the company's commitment to shareholder value and financial stability, which is positive for income-focused investors.
4. **Strategic Initiatives and Challenges**:
- Medtronic has been innovating and expanding its product portfolio, which could support future growth.
- However, the healthcare industry is subject to regulatory and competitive challenges that could impact earnings momentum.
5. **Economic and Market Conditions**:
- The broader market conditions, including economic concerns and stock market decline, could affect Medtronic's earnings trajectory.
- The company's performance amid these challenges suggests a balanced approach to growth and stability, which could sustain earnings to some extent.

In conclusion, while Medtronic's dividend commitment and strategic initiatives provide some support for sustained earnings, the slight decline in net income, the neutral analyst ratings, and the broader market conditions suggest that sustaining earnings momentum could be difficult in 2025. The company's focus on innovation and financial stability will be critical in determining its future performance.