Is MDLZ's Q3 2024 performance a sign of recovery?

**Mondelez International's (MDLZ) Q3 2024 performance does not conclusively indicate a recovery**, as the company's financial metrics show mixed results and variations compared to the previous year. Here's a detailed analysis:

1. **Revenue Growth**: MDLZ's total revenue for Q3 2024 was $9.2 billion, which is slightly higher than the revenue in the same quarter of the previous year, $9.03 billion. This indicates a modest increase in sales, but it is not a strong indicator of recovery.

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Total Revenue|Net Income|Diluted EPS|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|MDLZ|MDLZ.O|Mondelez|2023 Q4|9.314E9|9.5E8|0.7|185|
|MDLZ|MDLZ.O|Mondelez|2024 Q1|9.29E9|1.416E9|1.04|185|
|MDLZ|MDLZ.O|Mondelez|2024 Q2|8.343E9|6.03E8|0.45|185|
|MDLZ|MDLZ.O|Mondelez|2024 Q3|9.204E9|8.56E8|0.63|185|

2. **Net Income and Diluted EPS**: The net income for Q3 2024 was $856 million, which is lower than the net income of $988 million reported in Q3 2023. Similarly, the diluted EPS was $0.63 in Q3 2024, compared to $0.72 in Q3 2023. These figures suggest a decline in profitability, which is not a sign of recovery.

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Net Income YoY|Total Revenue YoY|Diluted EPS YoY|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|MDLZ|MDLZ.O|Mondelez|2023 Q4|62.671232876712324|7.1190339275445655|66.66666666666666|185|
|MDLZ|MDLZ.O|Mondelez|2024 Q1|-32.21637146960268|1.3528256600480035|-31.57894736842105|185|
|MDLZ|MDLZ.O|Mondelez|2024 Q2|-35.919234856535596|-1.9278241448219113|-34.782608695652165|185|
|MDLZ|MDLZ.O|Mondelez|2024 Q3|-13.360323886639677|1.9381991361169564|-12.499999999999996|185|

3. **Analyst Expectations**: Analysts had expected a higher EPS of $0.84 for Q3 2024. The actual EPS of $0.63 reported in Q3 2024 was below expectations, indicating that the company's performance may not be as robust as anticipated.
4. **Challenges and Positive Points**: Despite the challenges faced, such as unfavorable currency-related items and the impact of the 2023 divestiture of the developed market gum business, MDLZ has achieved organic net revenue growth of 2.5%. Additionally, the company has delivered strong profit dollar growth driven by effective cost management and pricing. These points suggest that while there are recovery signs, they are not yet strong enough to overshadow the challenges.
5. **Market Position and Investments**: MDLZ has been actively managing its portfolio and investing in emerging markets, which is a positive sign for long-term growth. The company's global footprint and brand portfolio are key factors that could influence its recovery trajectory.

In conclusion, while there are some positive signs of recovery, such as increased revenue and effective cost management, the decline in net income and EPS, along with challenges in key markets, suggest that MDLZ's Q3 2024 performance does not fully indicate a recovery. The company's ability to navigate these challenges and capitalize on growth opportunities will be crucial in determining its future trajectory.