Is MDLZ's long-term earnings growth sustainable?

**Mondelez International Inc. (MDLZ) faces challenges that may impact the sustainability of its long-term earnings growth.** Here's an analysis based on the latest data and market trends:

1. **Impact of Cocoa Costs**: Mondelez is facing unprecedented cocoa cost inflation, which is impacting profitability and requiring strategic adjustments. This is a significant headwind that could affect the company's earnings growth in the near term.
2. **Market Share Gain and New Share Repurchase Authorization**: Despite the challenges, Mondelez has gained share in 50% of its revenue base and has a new share repurchase authorization of $9 billion from 2025 to 2027. These factors could contribute to long-term earnings growth if the company manages to maintain or expand its market share and controls costs.
3. **Revenue Growth in Emerging Markets**: The company has seen revenue growth in emerging markets, with a 6.2% increase for the year. This is a positive sign, as emerging markets can provide a source of growth that helps offset challenges in developed markets.
4. **Organic Net Revenue Growth**: Mondelez achieved a 4.3% growth in organic net revenues for FY 2024, driven by higher net pricing. This indicates a strong focus on revenue growth from core operations, which can be a sustainable source of earnings growth if maintained over time.
5. **Free Cash Flow and Capital Return to Shareholders**: The company generated strong free cash flow of $3.5 billion and returned $4.7 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. This demonstrates a commitment to capital return, which can be a sign of confidence in the company's ability to generate sustainable earnings.
6. **Challenges in Developed Markets**: Mondelez's biscuit portfolio in the United States has been under pressure, and there are disruptions in the European market. These challenges could impact short-term earnings, but the company's ability to navigate these challenges and adapt to changing consumer preferences will be crucial for long-term growth.

In conclusion, while Mondelez faces significant challenges, particularly from rising cocoa costs, the company's strategic initiatives, revenue growth in emerging markets, and focus on organic net revenue growth provide a basis for optimism regarding the sustainability of its long-term earnings growth. However, the company will need to effectively manage these challenges and continue to innovate to ensure the sustainability of its earnings growth over the long term.