What does MAR's Q4 earnings say about 2025?

Marriott's Q4 2024 earnings report provides insights into the company's performance and outlook for 2025. Here are the key takeaways:

1. Revenue and Profit Growth: Marriott's Q4 2024 revenue exceeded expectations, with a 5.6% year-over-year increase to $6.43 billion, beating analyst estimates by $30 million. Adjusted EBITDA also grew by 7% to $1.29 billion. This strong performance indicates a positive trajectory for 2025.
2. Global RevPAR Growth: The company reported a 5% increase in RevPAR worldwide in Q4 2024, driven by a 3% rise in average daily rates and a 1-percentage point increase in occupancy. This growth, coupled with a 7% increase in gross fee revenues to $1.3 billion, suggests that 2025 could see continued RevPAR growth.
3. Regional Variations: Marriott experienced significant RevPAR growth in international markets, with Asia Pacific regions increasing by 12.5% and EMEA rising by 8% in Q4 2024. However, Greater China saw a 2% decline in RevPAR, which may pose a challenge for 2025 performance in that region. Nonetheless, the overall international performance is positive.
4. Leverage and Liquidity: Marriott's development pipeline reached over 577,000 rooms, supported by strategic acquisitions like MGM and Sonder. The company's focus on expanding its midscale portfolio and digital transformation efforts are likely to contribute to its growth in 2025.
5. Shareholder Returns: Marriott returned over $4.4 billion to shareholders in 2024 through dividends and buybacks, indicating a commitment to shareholder value. This bodes well for potential returns in 2025.
6. Outlook and Guidance: While Marriott's Q1 2025 EPS guidance is below consensus, the full-year 2025 EPS guidance of $9.82-$10.19 suggests a cautious but optimistic outlook. The company anticipates adjusted EBITDA to increase by 6%-9% to $5.3-$5.4 billion in 2025, which aligns with the growth seen in Q4 2024.

In conclusion, Marriott's Q4 2024 earnings report reflects a strong financial performance and strategic growth initiatives that are likely to translate into continued success in 2025. However, challenges in certain regional markets and the need for careful cost management are areas to monitor.