Is MAR's Q1 2025 earnings forecast optimistic?

Marriott's Q1 2025 earnings forecast is not overly optimistic. Here's a detailed analysis:

1. Comparison with Analyst Expectations: Marriott's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) forecast for Q1 2025 is $2.20 to $2.26, which is below the analyst consensus of $2.37. This indicates that Marriott's outlook falls short of analysts' expectations.
2. Revenue Forecast: The projected gross fee revenues for Q1 2025 are $1.24 billion to $1.26 billion, which is also below the expected revenue. This further supports the notion that the forecast is not overly optimistic.
3. Full-Year Forecast: Marriott's adjusted EPS forecast for FY 2025 is $9.82 to $10.19, below the analyst estimate of $10.63. The full-year revenue forecast is $5.37 billion to $5.48 billion, which is slightly above expectations. However, the EPS forecast holds back the overall outlook.
4. Recent Performance: Marriott's recent performance has been mixed. While the company reported strong results in Q4 2024, with adjusted EPS of $2.45, which beat expectations, the guidance for Q1 2025 was disappointing. This suggests that the company is facing challenges that affect its earnings outlook.
5. Market Reaction: Marriott's shares experienced a decline in premarket trading following the release of the earnings outlook, indicating that the market may not be optimistic about the company's future performance.

In conclusion, Marriott's Q1 2025 earnings forecast does not appear to be overly optimistic, considering the comparisons with analyst expectations, revenue projections, and the company's recent performance and market reaction.