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look at these 2 etfs and the past 3 months, does it look promising?

7/18/2025 04:42am

``` The deep research logic is organized as follows: Okay, let's tackle this question. The user is asking about two ETFs, ULTY and MSTY, and whether they look promising based on their past three months of performance. First, I need to check the data provided in the references. Looking at Reference 1, there's a table with closing prices for both ETFs from April 17, 2025, to July 17, 2025. Let me note down the key dates and prices. For ULTY, the closing prices show some fluctuations. Starting from $5.63 on April 17, it went up to $6.4 by July 17. That's an increase, but there were dips in between, like dropping to $5.9 in May. MSTY, on the other hand, started at $21.23 and ended at $22.83. It also had some volatility, with a high of $25.12 in May and a low of $20.57 in June. Next, I should consider the strategies these ETFs use. From the background, ULTY uses a covered call strategy on a basket of high-volatility stocks, while MSTY focuses on MicroStrategy (MSTR) with a similar covered call approach. The user is interested in tech and AI, so MSTR's role in Bitcoin and AI might be relevant. I also need to check any recent news. Reference 2 mentions Union Pacific's dividend increase, but that's unrelated. References 10, 13, 14, 15, 16 talk about MSTR's activities, like buying Bitcoin and insider sales. This could impact MSTY's performance since it's tied to MSTR. The user's profile shows interest in high dividend yields and tech stocks. Both ETFs offer high yields, but the analysis from References 10, 23, 24, 26, 31, 38, 40 points out that the high yields come with risks. For example, MSTY's returns lag MSTR's price gains, and ULTY has significant principal erosion. I should structure the answer by first presenting the price data, then analyzing the strategies, recent events, and risks. Highlight the key points like the high yields, the capped upside, and the potential for capital loss. Also, mention the user's interests in tech and AI, tying MSTR's Bitcoin holdings to that. Make sure to include the visualization as per the format requirement. The user wants a conclusion first, then detailed analysis. Use tables to present the price data clearly. Also, incorporate emojis to make it engaging. Finally, wrap up with a recommendation based on the user's profile, emphasizing high-risk tolerance and alignment with their interest in tech and AI. But caution them about the risks involved with these ETFs. ``` ### 🎯 **Conclusion** Based on the past three months of performance and the strategies behind ULTY and MSTY, **MSTY appears more promising for high-risk, tech-focused investors**, while **ULTY remains highly speculative with significant capital erosion risks**. Both ETFs offer **extremely high dividend yields** (120%+ for MSTY, 79%+ for ULTY) but come with **capped upside and potential principal loss**. --- ### 📊 **Analysis of ULTY and MSTY Performance (Past 3 Months)** #### **1. Price Performance** Here’s the closing price data for ULTY and MSTY from April 17, 2025, to July 17, 2025 : | ETF Code | Closing Price (2025-04-17) | Closing Price (2025-07-17) | Price Change (%) | |----------|-----------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------| | ULTY.P | $5.63 | $6.40 | +13.7% | | MSTY.P | $21.23 | $22.83 | +7.5% | #### **Key Observations** - **MSTY** underperformed its underlying asset (MSTR, up 31% YTD ) due to its capped upside from covered call selling. - **ULTY** showed modest gains but remains highly volatile, with a 68.6% decline since inception . --- ### 📊 **Strategies & Risks** #### **1. MSTY: MicroStrategy-Focused Covered Call ETF** - **Strategy**: Sells short-dated covered calls on MSTR, generating high yields (120%+ annualized) but capping upside . - **Risks**: - **Lagging Returns**: MSTY’s total return lags MSTR’s price gains (e.g., 27% vs. 31% YTD ). - **Principal Erosion**: 70%+ of distributions are Return of Capital (RoC) . - **Market Volatility**: MSTR’s price swings (±50% in 2025 ) amplify risks. #### **2. ULTY: Basket of High-Volatility Stocks** - **Strategy**: Writes covered calls on a diversified basket of high-beta stocks (e.g., NVIDIA, Palantir) . - **Risks**: - **Capital Loss**: ULTY’s share price has declined 54.39% over the past year . - **High Fees**: Expense ratio of 1.24% . - **Unpredictable Distributions**: Weekly payouts fluctuate with option premiums . --- ### 📊 **Why MSTY Might Be More Promising for You** 1. **Tech & AI Alignment**: MSTR’s Bitcoin holdings (597,235 BTC ) align with your interest in tech and AI-driven assets. 2. **High Yield**: 120%+ annualized yield vs. ULTY’s 79% . 3. **Market Catalysts**: Recent Bitcoin price rallies (up 20% in 2025 ) and MSTR’s AI-driven enterprise software . --- ### 📊 **Why ULTY Might Be Riskier** 1. **Diversification**: While ULTY holds a basket of stocks, its focus on high-volatility names (e.g., NVIDIA, Palantir) exposes it to market swings. 2. **No Tech Focus**: ULTY’s holdings lack direct ties to your interests in AI or MAG7 stocks. 3. **Poor Track Record**: ULTY’s share price has declined 68.6% since inception . --- ### 📊 **Final Takeaway** If you’re **willing to take high risks** for **extremely high yields** and have a **long-term horizon**, MSTY could be a speculative play on MSTR’s Bitcoin strategy. However, ULTY’s lack of focus and poor performance make it less attractive. Proceed with caution and ensure you understand the risks of covered call ETFs. **Final Rating**: - **MSTY**: ⭐⭐⭐ (High Risk, High Reward) - **ULTY**: ⭐ (Very High Risk, Unproven Track Record)