Can LMT sustain its EPS growth beyond 2024?

Lockheed Martin's EPS growth may face challenges beyond 2024. Here's why:

1. Recent Setbacks: The company has recently experienced a setback with the loss of the NGAD program to Boeing, which could impact earnings. This loss of a significant contract may lead to a delay in growth and a reduction in earnings estimates.
2. Earnings Quality Concerns: There are concerns about the recent earnings quality of Lockheed Martin, which may affect its long-term profitability. The company's operating profit margin contracted in Q4, indicating less efficiency due to increased expenses relative to revenue.
3. Competitive Pressures: Lockheed Martin is facing increasing competition, which could lead to further losses of defense contracts. This competitive pressure could negatively impact earnings growth in the future.
4. Geopolitical Shifts: The company's future growth prospects are becoming more uncertain due to geopolitical shifts and efforts in Europe to decrease dependence on U.S. defense contractors. These factors could limit Lockheed Martin's export opportunities and affect its earnings growth.
5. Analyst Ratings: Both BofA Securities and Melius Research have downgraded Lockheed Martin's stock, citing concerns about earnings quality, competitive pressures, and geopolitical shifts. These analyst ratings suggest that the company's earnings growth may be slower than expected beyond 2024.

In conclusion, while Lockheed Martin has potential for growth due to increasing global defense spending and its position as a top Foreign Military Sales player, the company's recent setbacks, competitive pressures, and earnings quality concerns suggest that sustaining EPS growth beyond 2024 may be challenging.