Can LFUS sustain its EPS growth into Q1 2025?

**Littelfuse's (LFUS) ability to sustain its EPS growth into Q1 2025 is uncertain based on current financial indicators and market conditions.** Here's an analysis to support this view:

1. **Recent Performance**: LFUS experienced a significant decline in EPS, with a year-over-year growth rate of -191.81% and a diluted EPS of -$1.57 for Q4 2024. This negative growth rate and negative EPS indicate that the company has faced considerable challenges in this period.

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Diluted EPS YoY|Diluted EPS|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|LFUS|LFUS.O|Littelfuse|2024 Q1|-45.48022598870057|1.93|185|
|LFUS|LFUS.O|Littelfuse|2024 Q2|-34.76702508960574|1.82|185|
|LFUS|LFUS.O|Littelfuse|2024 Q3|0.8695652173913052|2.32|185|
|LFUS|LFUS.O|Littelfuse|2024 Q4|-191.81286549707605|-1.57|185|

2. **Market Reaction and Outlook**: Despite the earnings miss in Q4 2024, the company's stock price increased by 2.63% in after-hours trading, closing at $235.24. This suggests a positive market sentiment, possibly due to factors other than EPS, such as revenue exceeding estimates. For Q2 2025, Littelfuse expects net sales to range between $525 million and $545 million, indicating a cautious but optimistic outlook.
3. **Strategic Positioning and Future Prospects**: Littelfuse has a diversified and resilient business model, which has historically driven sales and adjusted EPS above guidance. The company's confidence in its strategic direction and market positioning is reflected in its ongoing investments and growth opportunities. However, the current negative operating profit margin of 6.9% suggests that LFUS needs to improve its profitability, which could impact EPS growth.
4. **Comparing with Previous Quarters**: LFUS's EPS and revenue have aligned with or exceeded expectations in previous quarters, such as Q2 2024, where the company reported above-guidance sales and adjusted EPS. This consistency, along with a resilient business model, could be a positive indicator for future EPS growth if the current issues in Q4 2024 are transient.
5. **Earnings Call Insights**: The Q4 2024 earnings call did not provide specific guidance on Q1 2025 EPS, but it did highlight the company's focus on strategic initiatives and growth opportunities. This focus could potentially lead to improved EPS in the coming quarters if these initiatives are successful.

In conclusion, while there are positive indicators such as a diversified business model and a recent stock price increase, the significant EPS decline and negative margins in Q4 2024 raise concerns about LFUS's ability to sustain EPS growth into Q1 2025. The company's outlook and strategic initiatives will be crucial in determining its future EPS trajectory.