How does LESL's Q2 2025 EPS forecast compare to past trends?
4/8/2025 11:36am
**Leslie's Q2 2025 EPS forecast is below past trends.** Here's a detailed analysis:
1. **Current Q2 2025 Forecast**: The estimated EPS for Leslie's in Q2 2025 is -$0.25.
2. **Comparison with Historical Performance**:
- In Q2 2024, Leslie's reported a Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.17, which was slightly better than the Q2 2025 forecast, beating expectations by $0.01.
- The Q2 2023 EPS was not available. However, considering the overall trend, it's clear that the Q2 2025 forecast is below the historical performance of the previous quarter.
3. **Trends in Net Income and EBITDA**:
- Leslie's has shown fluctuations in net income and EBITDA. For example, in Q2 2024, the company reported a net income of $32 to $46 million and adjusted EBITDA of $170 to $190 million.
- The Q2 2025 forecast does not match the net income or EBITDA guidance provided for Q2 2024, indicating a potential decline in profitability.
4. **Market Analysts' Expectations**: Analysts had lower expectations for Q2 2025, with an estimated EPS that was closer to -$0.17 than the projected -$0.25.
5. **Recent Performance and Outlook**:
- Leslie's has experienced a significant decline over the past year, with a 70% drop in its market capitalization.
- Despite a slight increase in sales and the first comparable store sales gain in two years, the company's outlook for Q2 2025 and the full year is cautious, with expectations of higher occupancy costs, payroll, and benefits.
In conclusion, Leslie's Q2 2025 EPS forecast is below the recent past trends, reflecting ongoing challenges in the pool and spa care industry and the company's strategic initiatives aimed at recovery and growth.