How does KDP's full-year 2024 performance compare to expectations?

Keurig Dr Pepper's (KDP) full-year 2024 performance was generally in line with expectations in terms of revenue, but fell short in net income and cash flow growth.

1. **Revenue Performance**:
- KDP’s total revenue for the year was $15.35 billion, marking a 3.6% increase from 2023.
- This growth was primarily driven by strong momentum in its U.S. Refreshment Beverages and International segments.
- The company's revenue growth was slightly below the 4% constant currency growth it targeted for the year.
2. **Net Income and Profit Margin**:
- Net income for the year was $1.44 billion, reflecting a 34% decrease from the previous year.
- The profit margin decreased to 9.4% from 15% in 2023, indicating a significant decline in profitability.
- Adjusted diluted EPS grew by 7.8% to $1.92, showing improvement in earnings per share despite the net income decline.
3. **Cash Flow Growth**:
- Operating cash flow grew by 67% to $2.22 billion, indicating strong cash flow performance.
- Free cash flow grew by 82% to $1.7 billion, supporting balanced capital allocation.
4. **Comparative Analysis**:
- KDP’s revenue growth of 3.6% was in line with its target but slightly below the industry average growth forecast of 4.0%.
- The net income decline of 34% was a notable deviation from the revenue growth, suggesting challenges in cost management or operational efficiency.
- The company's EPS of $1.06 missed analyst estimates by 36%, indicating a shortfall in earnings expectations.

In conclusion, while KDP's full-year 2024 revenue was robust and in line with expectations, the company's performance was weighed down by a significant decline in net income and a decrease in profit margin. However, the company's cash flow growth and EPS increase provide some positive indicators.