The probability of the price being $883.04 on October 1, 2024, based on the analysts' data, is not necessarily higher than 75%. A probability above 75% would indicate a very high likelihood of the event occurring. The factors considered earlier can help assess the likelihood of the analysts' predictions being accurate, but they do not provide a specific probability.
To determine the probability more precisely, you can use the following approach:
- Weighted Average Price Target: Calculate a weighted average price target using the consensus price target and the number of analysts providing each target. This will give you a more accurate representation of the central tendency of the price targets.
- Analyst Consensus: Determine the percentage of analysts who have a price target above $883.04 and those who have a price target below $883.04. If a higher percentage of analysts have price targets above $883.04, it may suggest a higher likelihood of the price being above $883.04.
- Market Conditions: Consider any relevant market conditions or industry trends that may impact the stock's performance. If the market is trending favorably for Costco, it may increase the likelihood of the price being closer to the higher end of the price targets.
However, it's important to remember that no prediction can be guaranteed, and the likelihood of accuracy should be considered in the context of your investment strategy and risk tolerance.
In conclusion, while the probability of the price being $883.04 on October 1, 2024, may not be higher than 75% based on the analysts' data, it's important to weigh the available information and make an informed decision based on your own circumstances.
9/4/2024 03:17am
