Is NOA's earnings trend a concern for investors?

**North American Construction Group Ltd.'s (NOA) earnings trend presents concerns for investors.** Here's a detailed analysis:

1. **Earnings Performance**: NOA's fourth-quarter (Q4) 2024 earnings were $3.34 million, with a per-share basis of 14 cents. This missed the consensus estimate of $0.87 per share, indicating a significant shortfall in earnings expectations.

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Total Revenue|Net Income|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|NOA|NOA.N|North American Construction|2024 Q1|2.1936927704344E8|8396602.69036|169|
|NOA|NOA.N|North American Construction|2024 Q2|2.0192487478758E8|1.023604204329E7|169|
|NOA|NOA.N|North American Construction|2024 Q3|2.1231367160319E8|1.028865375067E7|169|
|NOA|NOA.N|North American Construction|2024 Q4|2.122152764196E8|3338888.86752|169|

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Diluted EPS YoY|Diluted EPS|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|NOA|NOA.N|North American Construction|2024 Q1|-45.13127457749322|0.2880354516|169|
|NOA|NOA.N|North American Construction|2024 Q2|8.208404397443509|0.3434668209|169|
|NOA|NOA.N|North American Construction|2024 Q3|20.726891460395187|0.3478647049|169|

2. **Revenue Analysis**: The company's total revenue for the period was $212.22 million. While this exceeded street forecasts, the overall revenue trend has been declining, with a YoY growth rate of -14.66%. Revenue estimates for the full year 2024 have been revised downwards, from $1.29 billion to $1.35 billion, reflecting a bearish outlook.

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Net Income YoY|Total Revenue YoY|Diluted EPS YoY|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|NOA|NOA.N|North American Construction|2024 Q1|-48.01608897207956|21.43337421468913|-45.13127457749322|169|
|NOA|NOA.N|North American Construction|2024 Q2|10.457762706770323|36.88699865708943|8.208404397443509|169|
|NOA|NOA.N|North American Construction|2024 Q3|22.294658913855105|45.95951547819401|20.726891460395187|169|
|NOA|NOA.N|North American Construction|2024 Q4|-75.0198283615736|-14.656725556112463||169|

3. **Earnings Guidance**: NOA provided FY 2025 earnings guidance of $2.650-2.860 per share, which is below the consensus estimate of $4.170. This suggests that the company expects earnings to remain under pressure in the near term.
4. **Dividend and Stock Performance**: NOA has a history of dividend payments, with the latest being $0.084 per share. However, the company's stock has underperformed, losing about 21.6% since the beginning of the year. The current market capitalization is $483.87 million, with a PE ratio of 12.10.
5. **Analyst Ratings**: Despite the challenges, analysts have shown mixed ratings, with some upgrading the stock to "strong-buy". However, the average one-year price target is $41.14, suggesting limited upside from the current price of $23.68.
6. **Financial Health Indicators**: NOA has a current ratio of 1.13 and a quick ratio of 0.88, indicating good short-term liquidity. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 1.85, which may raise concerns about leverage.

In conclusion, while NOA's revenue exceeded expectations, the significant earnings shortfall, declining revenue trend, and below-average earnings guidance for the upcoming year suggest that investors should exercise caution. The company's stock performance and analyst ratings present a mixed picture, with some optimism tempered by the current market conditions and financial metrics. Investors should monitor NOA's operational improvements and market conditions closely.