Is mbot 5$ call expiring oct 17 at .05 good. If I but 210 contracts. What if fda approve liberty system. When can I expect results and how much will I profit

The deep research logic is organized as follows: 

Okay, let's tackle this question. The user is asking about buying 210 contracts of a $5 call option on MBOT expiring on October 17, 2025, priced at $0.05. They want to know if this is a good trade, especially considering the potential FDA approval of the Liberty System. They also want to know when results might come in and the expected profit.

First, I need to check the references provided. The user mentioned the FDA approval of the Liberty System. Looking at the references, there are several articles about Microbot Medical's progress with the Liberty System. For example, Number 5 mentions that the 510(k) submission was made in December 2024, with clearance expected in Q2 2025. However, the latest update in Number 20 and 22 mentions that the FDA decision is now expected in Q3 2025, with the launch planned for the same quarter. The current time is July 22, 2025, so the FDA decision is likely pending, but the user's option expires in October, which is after the expected Q3 clearance.

Next, the user's profile indicates they're interested in options trading, high IV stocks, and regulatory changes. They have a short to medium-term horizon and are focused on high-profitability growth stocks. The $5 call option is deep in-the-money if the stock price is around $2.45 as per the Background. Wait, the Background shows the last price as $2.45, but the user is asking about a $5 call. That seems way out of the money. Wait, no, the Background's last price is $2.45, but the user is considering a $5 call. That would be in-the-money if the stock goes up to $5 or more. But the current price is $2.45, so the $5 call is OTM. However, the user is asking if buying 210 contracts at $0.05 each is good. That's a very low premium, which might indicate a high IV or a lot of expected volatility.

Wait, the Background's last price is $2.45, but the user is asking about a $5 call. The current price is below the strike, so the option is OTM. The premium is $0.05, which is very low. The user is considering buying 210 contracts, which is a significant number. Let me check the references for any information on the expected stock price movement post-FDA approval. The Background's Python code calculates a profit of $2 million, but that's hypothetical. The user's question is about the call option's profit if the FDA approves.

Looking at the references, the stock price after FDA submission (Number 7) showed gains, but the current price is $2.45. The user's option is for October 17, 2025, which is about 3 months from the current date. The FDA decision is expected in Q3 2025, which is July-September. Since the current time is July 22, the decision could come in the next few weeks. If the FDA approves, the stock might surge. The user's option is a $5 call, so if the stock goes to, say, $5 or higher, the option would be ITM.

But wait, the Background's Python code shows a profit of $2 million, but that's based on hypothetical revenue and costs. The actual stock price movement would depend on market reaction. The user's option is priced at $0.05, which is very cheap. The delta for such an option would be low, meaning the option is not very sensitive to stock price movements. However, if the stock jumps significantly on FDA approval, the option could become profitable.

The user's question also asks about the expected results. The FDA decision is expected in Q3 2025, which is soon. If approved, the stock might rise, but the option's expiration is in October, giving some time for the stock to move. The user is considering 210 contracts, which is a large number. The cost would be 210 * 100 * $0.05 = $1,050. If the stock goes to $5, the profit would be (5 - 5) - 0.05 = -$0.05 per contract, but wait, that's not right. The profit formula is (Stock Price - Strike Price - Premium) * Number of Contracts * 100. So if the stock is $5, the profit is (5 - 5 - 0.05) * 210 * 100 = (-0.05) * 210 * 100 = -$10,500. That's a loss. Wait, that can't be right. Maybe I'm misunderstanding the strike price. The strike is $5, and the current price is $2.45. If the stock goes to $5, the option would be at the money, but the premium paid was $0.05. So the profit would be (5 - 5 - 0.05) = -$0.05 per contract. That's a loss. But if the stock goes above $5, say $6, then the profit would be (6 - 5 - 0.05) * 210 * 100 = 0.95 * 210 * 100 = $199,500. That's a significant profit.

However, the user's current price is $2.45, and the option is $5 strike. The intrinsic value is zero because the stock is below the strike. The premium is $0.05, which is the time value. If the FDA approves, the stock might jump, but whether it reaches $5 is uncertain. The user's risk is limited to the premium paid, which is $1,050. The potential reward is unlimited if the stock goes up, but the probability of the stock reaching $5 is low given the current price. The user's profile mentions they're interested in high IV stocks, so the $0.05 premium might indicate high IV, making the option a good candidate for a long call if the user expects a significant move.

But wait, the user's question is about the $5 call expiring in October. The FDA decision is expected in Q3, which is before the option's expiration. If the FDA approves, the stock might rise, but the user needs to consider the time decay. The option has about 3 months left, so the time value might erode if the stock doesn't move. However, the user is considering buying the option now, so the time decay is a factor. The user's risk is the premium, but the potential reward is high if the stock moves up.

In conclusion, the user needs to assess the likelihood of the FDA approval and the potential stock price movement. The option is cheap, but the strike is high. If the stock jumps significantly on approval, the option could be profitable. However, the user should be aware of the high risk and the need for the stock to reach at least $5.10 (strike + premium) to break even. The user's profile suggests they're comfortable with high-risk, high-reward trades, so this might align with their strategy. The expected results (FDA decision) are soon, so the user should monitor the news closely.

### 🚨 **Final Answer** 🚨
**Conclusion**:
The $5 call option on MBOT expiring on October 17, 2025, priced at $0.05 per contract, presents a **high-risk, high-reward opportunity** tied to the potential FDA approval of the Liberty System. Here’s the breakdown:

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### 📊 **Analysis** 📊

#### 1. **FDA Approval Timeline**
- **Current Status**: The FDA 510(k) decision for the Liberty System is **expected in Q3 2025** .
- **Key Milestone**: If approved, **commercialization could begin by Q3 2025** .
- **Impact**: FDA approval could trigger a **significant stock price surge**, as seen in similar cases (e.g., MBOT stock surged 154% in the past 6 months ).

#### 2. **Option Details**
| Parameter | Value |
|-------------------------|---------------------------|
| Strike Price | $5.00 |
| Expiration Date | October 17, 2025 |
| Current Stock Price | $2.45 |
| Premium Paid | $0.05 per contract |
| Contracts Purchased | 210 |
| Total Cost | $1,050 (210 × 100 × $0.05)|

#### 3. **Profit Potential**
- **Break-even Price**: $5.05 (Strike Price + Premium) .
- **Profit Formula**:
\[
\text{Profit} = (\text{Stock Price} - \text{Strike Price} - \text{Premium}) \times \text{Contracts} \times 100
\]
- **Scenario Analysis**:
| Stock Price Post-Approval | Profit/Loss |
|---------------------------|--------------|
| $5.00 | -$1,050 |
| $6.00 | +$199,500 |
| $7.00 | +$399,000 |

#### 4. **Risks**
- **Time Decay**: The option’s time value ($0.05 premium) will erode if the stock doesn’t move by expiration.
- **FDA Denial**: If the FDA delays or denies approval, the stock could drop, leading to a total loss of the premium.
- **Market Volatility**: MBOT is a **microcap stock** with high volatility, making it prone to sharp price swings.

---

### 📊 **Key Takeaways** 📊
1. **Why It’s a Good Trade**:
- **Low Cost**: $1,050 total investment for 210 contracts.
- **High Upside**: Potential for **$200k+ profit** if the stock surges post-FDA approval.
- **Alignment with Profile**: Fits your interest in **FDA-driven volatility** and **high IV stocks**.

2. **Why It’s Risky**:
- **Break-even Risk**: Need the stock to reach $5.05 to avoid a loss.
- **Execution Risk**: FDA approval is not guaranteed, and the stock might not react as expected.

---

### 📊 **Final Decision** 📊
If you’re confident in the FDA approval and believe MBOT’s stock could **double or triple** post-approval, this trade makes sense. However, **only allocate a small portion of your portfolio** (e.g., 1-2%) due to the high risk.

**Final Profit Potential**:
- **Best Case**: $399,000 (if stock hits $7.00).
- **Worst Case**: -$1,050 (if stock stays below $5.05).

**When to Expect Results**: Look for FDA news by **August-September 2025** .

Let me know if you need further adjustments! 🚀