Is CTRI's Q1 2025 EPS forecast optimistic?

**CTRI's Q1 2025 EPS forecast is not optimistic.** Here's a detailed analysis:

1. **Current Forecast**: The estimated EPS for Centuri Holdings in Fiscal Q1 2025 is -$0.09.

2. **Historical Performance**: In Q4 2024, Centuri reported an adjusted EPS of $0.21, which surpassed the consensus estimate of $0.19. This indicates a strong performance in the recent past.
3. **Market Sentiment and Outlook**: Despite the earnings beat in Q4 2024, the company's stock fell over 5% due to concerns about potential risks and volatility in energy infrastructure investments. Additionally, the company's 2025 outlook includes a revenue forecast range of $2.6 billion to $2.8 billion, which is slightly below analysts' expectations of $2.7 billion. The projection of adjusted EBITDA between $240 million to $275 million also suggests a more conservative outlook.
4. **Strategic Initiatives**: Centuri's new CEO, Chris Brown, has initiated a company-wide review of business development activities to focus on structured market positioning and building the sales pipeline. These initiatives are positive but may take time to show results.
5. **Backlog and Awards**: The company's backlog stands at $3.7 billion, with 90% related to master service agreement revenue. Centuri anticipates securing new awards in the next twelve months, aiming for a book-to-bill ratio exceeding 1.1x. This indicates a potential for growth in the future.

In conclusion, while Centuri has had strong performance in the past and is making strategic moves, the current EPS forecast for Q1 2025 is not optimistic due to market concerns and a more conservative revenue forecast for the year.