Is BWB's Q1 2025 forecast achievable based on past trends?

Bridgewater Bancshares (BWB) faces a challenging road to achieving its forecasted net income of $13.74 million for Q1 2025, based on the recent trend of declining net income. The data indicates a clear downward trajectory in net income over the past three years:

1. **Declining Net Income Trend**: The net income for BWB has been on a downward slope, from $13.74 million in 2022Q4 to $8.87 million in 2023Q4, and a further decrease to $8.2 million in 2024Q4.

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Net Income YoY|Net Income|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|BWB|BWB.O|Bridgewater|2022 Q1|14.909567988004873|1.2262E7|186|
|BWB|BWB.O|Bridgewater|2022 Q2|17.183662330574002|1.2882E7|186|
|BWB|BWB.O|Bridgewater|2022 Q3|26.1013120166826|1.4513E7|186|
|BWB|BWB.O|Bridgewater|2022 Q4|9.757072079271216|1.3735E7|186|
|BWB|BWB.O|Bridgewater|2023 Q1|-5.056271407600717|1.1642E7|186|
|BWB|BWB.O|Bridgewater|2023 Q2|-23.800652072659524|9816000|186|
|BWB|BWB.O|Bridgewater|2023 Q3|-33.65258733549232|9629000|186|
|BWB|BWB.O|Bridgewater|2023 Q4|-35.39861667273389|8873000|186|
|BWB|BWB.O|Bridgewater|2024 Q1|-32.73492527057207|7831000|186|
|BWB|BWB.O|Bridgewater|2024 Q2|-17.32885085574572|8115000|186|

2. **Recent Performance**: The most recent data point, Q4 2024, shows a net income of $8.2 million. This is significantly lower than the target of $13.74 million for Q1 2025, which is a 68.4% increase from the last reported quarter's net income.
3. **Market Conditions**: The forecast assumes a sudden and substantial improvement in net income, which may not be realistic given the current economic conditions and the bank's recent performance. The market would need to see a significant turnaround in BWB's financial performance to achieve this goal.

In conclusion, based on the historical trend of declining net income and the current economic climate, BWB's forecasted net income for Q1 2025 seems ambitious. The bank would need to demonstrate a strong strategic turnaround and favorable market conditions to achieve this target.