Is ALCO a good buy?
10/12/2024 02:58pm
**Alico, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALCO) is not currently a good buy** based on the analysis of its financial performance, technical indicators, and recent news. Here's the reasoning behind this conclusion:
1. **Financial Performance**: Alico's financial performance has been mixed. The company reported a total revenue of $13.61 million for the quarter, which is a significant increase of 86.85% year-over-year. However, the net income for the same period was -$1.91 million, a decrease of 115.81% compared to the previous year. This indicates that while the company is growing its revenue, it is not translating into profitability.
2. **Growth Rates**: The growth rates for revenue and net income are quite volatile. The 3-year revenue CAGR is -39.42%, and the 3-year net income CAGR is -78.18%. These negative growth rates suggest that the company has been declining over the past few years.
3. **Technical Indicators**: The technical indicators for ALCO are not encouraging. The stock is currently trading below its 5-Day, 10-Day, and 20-Day moving averages, which could indicate a bearish trend. Additionally, the MACD is negative at -0.41, the KDJ is at 43.43, and the RSI is at 41.48. These values suggest that the stock may be oversold, but they also indicate that it has been underperforming recently.
4. **Dividend and Valuation**: Alico has announced a quarterly dividend of $0.05, which yields 0.72% annually. While this dividend yield is modest, it is important to note that the company's dividend payout ratio is -54.1%, indicating that it is not currently covering its dividend with earnings alone and is relying on its balance sheet to cover its dividend payments. This could be a red flag for investors concerned about the sustainability of the dividend.
5. **Market Sentiment and Analyst Ratings**: The stock has received an upgrade from StockNews.com, but this was shortly after a downgrade to a "sell" rating by the same agency. The consensus among analysts is not clear, and the stock's price has been trading below its 200-day moving average, which could indicate a lack of confidence from the market.
6. **Short Interest**: There has been a significant increase in short interest in ALCO, with 265,000 shares sold short as of August 15, 2024. This could be indicative of market participants betting on further declines in the stock price.
In conclusion, while Alico has shown strong revenue growth, its negative net income and the decline in its technical indicators suggest that it may not be a good buy at this time. The mixed analyst ratings and the recent downgrade to a "sell" rating further support this conclusion. Investors should exercise caution and consider these factors before making an investment decision in ALCO.