What insights does LLY's 2024 earnings reveal?


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Eli Lilly's 2024 earnings report highlights significant growth driven by the robust demand for its weight loss and diabetes drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, despite pricing pressures and missed revenue estimates due to lower-than-expected sales of Mounjaro.
- Revenue and Earnings Growth: Lilly's revenue surged by 45% in Q4 2024, reaching $13.53 billion, driven primarily by the sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound. The company's net income soared 101% to $4.41 billion, and its earnings per share (EPS) doubled to $4.88, with a non-GAAP EPS of $5.3212.
- Volume Growth vs. Pricing Impact: The exceptional volume growth in Mounjaro and Zepbound sales, up 60% and 70% respectively, was partially offset by a 4% decrease in realized prices, mainly from Mounjaro23. This indicates that while demand remains strong, pricing pressures could impact future earnings.
- Market Outlook and Pipeline: Despite the sales shortfall of Zepbound and Mounjaro in Q3 2024, the overall market outlook for weight loss drugs remains promising, with some analysts predicting a billion-dollar market size by the end of the decade4. Lilly's pipeline progress, including the upcoming late-stage data on retatrutide, a next-generation obesity drug, suggests a positive future outlook2.
- Investor Considerations: Current investor sentiment is cautious, as reflected by the earnings estimate adjustments and the company's lowered full-year revenue guidance. The consensus suggests a hold position, with a Zacks Rank #3 rating, indicating a need for monitoring but also potential for future earnings beats56.
In conclusion, while Eli Lilly has shown strong performance driven by its key drugs, it faces challenges from pricing and missed revenue targets. The company's pipeline progress and positive market outlook for weight loss drugs offer potential for future growth.
Source:
1.
LLY Actual EPS, Revenue in Fiscal 2024Q4
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